4.4 The Two Basic Rules of Probability

Learning Objectives

1.  The Multiplication Rule (AND)

  • Calculate the probability of two independent events both occurring together

2.  The Addition Rule (OR)

  • Calculate the probability of two mutually exclusive events
  • Calculate the probability of two events that are not mutually exclusive

When calculating probability, there are two rules to consider:  The Multiplication Rule and The Addition Rule.

Before we talk about the Multiplication Rule, we need to define independent events.

Independent Events

Events A and B are independent events if the probability of Event B occurring is the same whether or not Event A occurs.

Examples

Are these events independent?

  1. A fair coin is tossed two times. The two events are (1) first toss is a head and (2) second toss is a head.
  2. The two events (1) “It will rain tomorrow in Houston” and (2) “It will rain tomorrow in Galveston” (a city near Houston).
  3. You draw a card from a deck, then draw a second card without replacing the first.

In order to use the Multiplication Rule, we will be multiplying fractions, so let’s review a couple of things.

recall multiplying fractions

To multiply fractions, place the product of the numerators over the product of the denominators.

[latex]\dfrac{a}{b} \cdot \dfrac{c}{d} = \dfrac{ac}{bd}[/latex]

Recall fraction SIMPLIFICATION

To write a fraction in simplified terms, first take the prime factorization of the numerator and denominator, then cancel out factors that are common in the numerator and the denominator.

Ex. [latex]\dfrac{12}{18}=\dfrac{\cancel{2}\cdot 2\cdot \cancel{3}}{\cancel{2}\cdot 3\cdot \cancel{3}}=\dfrac{2}{3}[/latex]

We are now ready for the Multiplication Rule.

multiplication rule (and)

Assume A and B are events in the sample space (all possible outcomes) of a probability experiment. Also, P(A and B) is the probability of events A and B both occurring, P(A) is the probability of event A occurring, and P(B) is the probability of event B occurring.

P(A and B) for Independent Events

If events A and B are independent, then

[latex]P\left(A\text{ and }B\right)=P\left(A\right)\cdot{P}\left(B\right)[/latex]

P(A and B) for Events that are NOT Independent

If A and B are not independent events, then

[latex]P\left(A\text{ and }B\right)=P\left(A\right)\cdot{P}\left(B \right |A)[/latex]

[latex]{P}\left(B\right |A)[/latex] means the probability of [latex]B[/latex] given that [latex]A[/latex] has already occurred).

example (Multiplication rule with independent events)

Suppose we flipped a coin and rolled a die, and wanted to know the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 6 on the die.

 

example (Multiplication rule with events that are not independent)

Suppose we wanted to eat two cookies from a cookie jar containing 4 chocolate chip cookies, 6 oatmeal raisin cookies, and 10 peanut butter cookies. Suppose we reach our hand into the cookie jar and choose one cookie and eat it. Then we reach our hand in and choose a second cookie and eat it. Find the probability that we would get a peanut butter cookie first and then a chocolate chip cookie.

 

Now we will look at the probability of either event occurring.

ADDITION RULE (OR)

The probability of either A or B occurring (or both) is:

[latex]P(A\text{ or }B)=P(A)+P(B)–P(A\text{ and }B)[/latex]

 

example (ADDITION RULE)

Suppose we flipped a coin and rolled a die, and wanted to know the probability of getting a head on the coin or a 6 on the die.

example

Suppose we draw one card from a standard deck. What is the probability that we get a Queen or a King?

See more about this example and the previous one in the following video.

In the last example, the events were mutually exclusive, so P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

When the events are not mutually exclusive, it is useful to draw a picture or use a diagram.  For instance, let’s use a picture of a deck of cards to calculate probability.

Example

Using the picture of a standard deck of cards above, calculate the following probabilities.

Suppose we draw one card from a standard deck. What is the probability that we get a red card or a King?

From the picture, we can determine that the number of cards that are red or a King is the 26 red cards plus the King of spades and the King of clubs for a total of 28 cards.  Therefore the P(red card if a King) = 28/52 which simplifies to 7/13.

Let’s look at the same example using the formula.

P(A or B)  =  P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

P(red or King) = P(red) + P(King) – P(red and King)

P(red or King) = 26/52  +   4/52    –    2/52

P(red or King) = 28/52

P(red or King) = 7/13

Let’s calculate probability when rolling 2 dice.  How many different outcomes are possible when rolling 2 dice, one red and one blue?  Start with drawing a picture of the possible outcomes.

Example

Roll 2 dice.  What’s the probability that the sum of the 2 dice is either a 7 or 11?  That is, P(sum is 7 or 11)

P(sum is 7) =  6/36

P(sum is 11) = 2/36

These events are mutually exclusive since the sum cannot be 7 and 11.

P(sum is 7 or 11) = P(sum is 7) + P(sum is 11)

P(sum is 7 or 11) =      6/36       +       2/36

P(sum is 7 or 11) =   8/36 which simplifies to 2/9

Examples

Roll 2 dice.  What’s the probability that the sum of the 2 dice is greater than or equal to 10 or the red die shows a 5 on its face?  That is, P(sum > 10 or 5 on red die)

Looking at the picture and counting the outcomes that are shaded the probability is 10/36 which simplifies to 5/18.

Now, let’s walk through the or formula.

P(sum > 10) =  6/36

P(red die is a 5) = 6/36

These events are not mutually exclusive since the sum can have a 5 on the red die and be a sum greater than or equal to 10.

P(sum >10 or red 5) = P( > 10) + P(red 5) – P( >10&red 5)

P(sum >10 or red 5) =      6/36   +   6/36   –   2/36

P(sum >10 or red 5) =   10/36 which simplifies to 5/18.

This is the end of the section. Close this tab and proceed to the corresponding assignment.