{"id":6866,"date":"2017-07-24T05:41:22","date_gmt":"2017-07-24T05:41:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/courses.lumenlearning.com\/hccs-macroeconomics-3\/?post_type=chapter&#038;p=6866"},"modified":"2017-07-25T17:21:03","modified_gmt":"2017-07-25T17:21:03","slug":"the-fed-and-monetary-policy-2","status":"publish","type":"chapter","link":"https:\/\/courses.lumenlearning.com\/hccs-macroeconomics-3\/chapter\/the-fed-and-monetary-policy-2\/","title":{"raw":"The FED and Monetary Policy","rendered":"The FED and Monetary Policy"},"content":{"raw":"<p id=\"fs-idp58079680\">A monetary policy that lowers interest rates and stimulates borrowing is known as an\u00a0<strong>expansionary monetary policy<\/strong>\u00a0or easy (loose) monetary policy. Conversely, a monetary policy that raises interest rates and reduces borrowing in the economy is a\u00a0<strong>contractionary monetary policy<\/strong>\u00a0or\u00a0tight monetary policy. This module will discuss how expansionary and contractionary monetary policies affect interest rates and aggregate demand, and how such policies will affect macroeconomic goals like unemployment and inflation. We will conclude with a look at the Fed\u2019s monetary policy practice in recent decades.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<section id=\"fs-idm78734896\">\r\n<table class=\"lines\" style=\"width: 850px\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24061258\/fed-report-credit.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6875\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24061258\/fed-report-credit.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"628\" height=\"449\" \/><\/a><\/td>\r\n<td style=\"width: 350px;vertical-align: top\">\r\n<div class=\"textbox learning-objectives\">\r\n<h3>Learning Objectives<\/h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n \t<li>Money markets: \u00a0Money supply and interest rates<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Types of monetary policy<\/li>\r\n \t<li>Purpose of monetary policy - Impact of aggregate demand<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/div>\r\n&nbsp;<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<h1>The Effect of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates<\/h1>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm54023136\">Consider the market for loanable bank funds, shown in Fig. 1. The original equilibrium (E<sub>0<\/sub>) occurs at an interest rate of 8% and a quantity of funds loaned and borrowed of $10 billion. An expansionary monetary policy will shift the supply of loanable funds to the right from the original supply curve (S<sub>0<\/sub>) to S<sub>1<\/sub>, leading to an equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) with a lower interest rate of 6% and a quantity of funds loaned of $14 billion. Conversely, a contractionary monetary policy will shift the supply of loanable funds to the left from the original supply curve (S<sub>0<\/sub>) to S<sub>2<\/sub>, leading to an equilibrium (E<sub>2<\/sub>) with a higher interest rate of 10% and a quantity of funds loaned of $8 billion.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econ_C28_002\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\r\n<div class=\"title\">Fig. 1-Monetary Policy and Interest Rates<\/div>\r\n<span id=\"fs-idp468784\"><img src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/2c9e3cbaa5f45230aa309098503c1d1ff665cf36\/CNX_Econ_C28_002.jpg\" alt=\"This graph shows how monetary policy shifts the supply of loanable funds.\" \/><\/span>\r\n\r\n<figcaption>The original equilibrium occurs at E<sub>0<\/sub>. An expansionary monetary policy will shift the supply of loanable funds to the right from the original supply curve (S<sub>0<\/sub>) to the new supply curve (S<sub>1<\/sub>) and to a new equilibrium of E<sub>1<\/sub>, reducing the interest rate from 8% to 6%. A contractionary monetary policy will shift the supply of loanable funds to the left from the original supply curve (S<sub>0<\/sub>) to the new supply (S<sub>2<\/sub>), and raise the interest rate from 8% to 10%.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm96661744\">So how does a central bank \u201craise\u201d interest rates? When describing the monetary policy actions taken by a central bank, it is common to hear that the central bank \u201craised interest rates\u201d or \u201clowered interest rates.\u201d We need to be clear about this: more precisely, through open market operations the central bank changes bank reserves in a way which affects the supply curve of loanable funds. As a result, interest rates change, as shown in Fig.1. If they do not meet the Fed\u2019s target, the Fed can supply more or less reserves until interest rates do.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm115376560\">Recall that the specific interest rate the Fed targets is the\u00a0federal funds rate. The Federal Reserve has, since 1995, established its target federal funds rate in advance of any open market operations.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm2170128\">Of course, financial markets display a wide range of\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">interest rates<\/span>, representing borrowers with different risk premiums and loans that are to be repaid over different periods of time. In general, when the federal funds rate drops substantially, other interest rates drop, too, and when the federal funds rate rises, other interest rates rise. However, a fall or rise of one percentage point in the federal funds rate\u2014which remember is for borrowing overnight\u2014will typically have an effect of less than one percentage point on a 30-year loan to purchase a house or a three-year loan to purchase a car. Monetary policy can push the entire spectrum of interest rates higher or lower, but the specific interest rates are set by the forces of supply and demand in those specific markets for lending and borrowing.<\/p>\r\n<iframe style=\"overflow: hidden;width: 600px;height: 425px\" src=\"\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/graph-landing.php?g=ets9&amp;width=600&amp;height=425\" width=\"650\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\r\n\r\n<\/section><section id=\"fs-idp98596512\">\r\n<h1>The Effect of Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand<\/h1>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp9333792\">Monetary policy affects interest rates and the available quantity of loanable funds, which in turn affects several components of aggregate demand. Tight or contractionary monetary policy that leads to higher interest rates and a reduced quantity of loanable funds will reduce two components of aggregate demand. Business investment will decline because it is less attractive for firms to borrow money, and even firms that have money will notice that, with higher interest rates, it is relatively more attractive to put those funds in a financial investment than to make an investment in physical capital. In addition, higher interest rates will discourage consumer borrowing for big-ticket items like houses and cars. Conversely, loose or expansionary monetary policy that leads to lower interest rates and a higher quantity of loanable funds will tend to increase business investment and consumer borrowing for big-ticket items.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp162497616\">If the economy is suffering a recession and high unemployment, with output below\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">potential GDP<\/span>, expansionary monetary policy can help the economy return to potential GDP. Fig.2\u00a0(a) illustrates this situation. This example uses a short-run upward-sloping\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Keynesian aggregate supply curve<\/span>\u00a0(SRAS). The original equilibrium during a recession of E<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0occurs at an output level of 600. An expansionary monetary policy will reduce interest rates and stimulate investment and consumption spending, causing the original aggregate demand curve (AD<sub>0<\/sub>) to shift right to AD<sub>1<\/sub>, so that the new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) occurs at the potential GDP level of 700.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econv1-2_C28_08\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\r\n<div class=\"title\">Fig. 2-Expansionary or Contractionary Monetary Policy<\/div>\r\n<span id=\"fs-idp97363200\"><img src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/35b53926d61116f064345621d8c1c954a9530e88\/CNX_Econv1-2_C28_08.jpg\" alt=\"The graph showing how changes in the money supply can restore output levels to potential GDP in times of economic instability.\" \/><\/span>\r\n\r\n<figcaption>(a) The economy is originally in a recession with the equilibrium output and price level shown at E<sub>0<\/sub>. Expansionary monetary policy will reduce interest rates and shift aggregate demand to the right from AD<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0to AD<sub>1<\/sub>, leading to the new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) at the potential GDP level of output with a relatively small rise in the price level. (b) The economy is originally producing above the potential GDP level of output at the equilibrium E<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0and is experiencing pressures for an inflationary rise in the price level. Contractionary monetary policy will shift aggregate demand to the left from AD<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0to AD<sub>1<\/sub>, thus leading to a new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) at the potential GDP level of output.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp95125824\">Conversely, if an economy is producing at a quantity of output above its potential GDP, a contractionary monetary policy can reduce the inflationary pressures for a rising price level. In Fig.2\u00a0(b), the original equilibrium (E<sub>0<\/sub>) occurs at an output of 750, which is above potential GDP. A contractionary monetary policy will raise interest rates, discourage borrowing for investment and consumption spending, and cause the original demand curve (AD<sub>0<\/sub>) to shift left to AD<sub>1<\/sub>, so that the new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) occurs at the potential GDP level of 700.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp45680144\">These examples suggest that monetary policy should be\u00a0<strong>countercyclical<\/strong>; that is, it should act to counterbalance the business cycles of economic downturns and upswings. Monetary policy should be loosened when a recession has caused unemployment to increase and tightened when inflation threatens. Of course, countercyclical policy does pose a danger of overreaction. If loose monetary policy seeking to end a recession goes too far, it may push aggregate demand so far to the right that it triggers inflation. If tight monetary policy seeking to reduce inflation goes too far, it may push aggregate demand so far to the left that a recession begins. Fig.\u00a0(a) summarizes the chain of effects that connect loose and tight monetary policy to changes in output and the price level.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econ_C28_011\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\r\n<div class=\"title\">The Pathways of Monetary Policy<\/div>\r\n<span id=\"fs-idm7152896\"><img src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/7aa5d8c60d3b25e02ceedce4878169f489b2df51\/CNX_Econ_C28_011.jpg\" alt=\"This image is a chart showing the mechanisms through which monetary policy affects output.\" \/><\/span>\r\n\r\n<figcaption>(a) In expansionary monetary policy the central bank causes the supply of money and loanable funds to increase, which lowers the interest rate, stimulating additional borrowing for investment and consumption, and shifting aggregate demand right. The result is a higher price level and, at least in the short run, higher real GDP. (b) In contractionary monetary policy, the central bank causes the supply of money and credit in the economy to decrease, which raises the interest rate, discouraging borrowing for investment and consumption, and shifting aggregate demand left. The result is a lower price level and, at least in the short run, lower real GDP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<\/section><section id=\"fs-idp1628816\">\r\n<table class=\"lines\" style=\"width: 847px\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td style=\"width: 400.6px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045506\/expans-mon-pol.png\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6871\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045506\/expans-mon-pol.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"736\" height=\"554\" \/><\/a><\/td>\r\n<td style=\"width: 426.4px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045503\/contract-mon-pol.png\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-6870 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045503\/contract-mon-pol.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"741\" height=\"549\" \/><\/a><\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<h2>Quantitative Easing<\/h2>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp9046176\">The most powerful and commonly used of the three traditional tools of monetary policy\u2014open market operations\u2014works by expanding or contracting the money supply in a way that influences the interest rate. In late 2008, as the U.S. economy struggled with recession, the Federal Reserve had already reduced the interest rate to near-zero. With the recession still ongoing, the Fed decided to adopt an innovative and nontraditional policy known as\u00a0<strong>quantitative easing<\/strong> (QE). This is the <strong>purchase of long-term government and private mortgage-backed securities<\/strong> by central banks to make credit available so as to stimulate\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">aggregate demand<\/span>.<\/p>\r\nQuantitative easing differed from traditional monetary policy in several key ways. First, it involved the Fed purchasing long term\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Treasury bonds<\/span>, rather than short term\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Treasury bills<\/span>. In 2008, however, it was impossible to stimulate the economy any further by lowering short term rates because they were already as low as they could get. \u00a0Therefore, Bernanke sought to lower long-term rates utilizing quantitative easing.\r\n\r\n<\/section>This leads to a second way QE is different from traditional monetary policy. Instead of purchasing Treasury securities, the Fed also began purchasing private mortgage-backed securities, something it had never done before. During the financial crisis, which precipitated the recession, mortgage-backed securities were termed \u201ctoxic assets,\u201d because when the housing market collapsed, no one knew what these securities were worth, which put the financial institutions which were holding those securities on very shaky ground. By offering to purchase mortgage-backed securities, the Fed was both pushing long term interest rates down and also removing possibly \u201ctoxic assets\u201d from the balance sheets of private financial firms, which would strengthen the financial system.\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp647360\">Quantitative easing (QE) occurred in three episodes:<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp60976\">\r\n<div>During QE<sub>1<\/sub>, which began in November 2008, the Fed purchased $600 billion in mortgage-backed securities from government enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.<\/div>\r\n<div>In November 2010, the Fed began QE<sub>2<\/sub>, in which it purchased $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds.<\/div>\r\n<div>QE<sub>3<\/sub>, began in September 2012 when the Fed commenced purchasing $40 billion of additional mortgage-backed securities per month. This amount was increased in December 2012 to $85 billion per month. The Fed stated that, when economic conditions permit, it will begin tapering (or reducing the monthly purchases). By October 2014, the Fed had announced the final $15 billion purchase of bonds, ending Quantitative Easing.<\/div>\r\n<div>The quantitative easing policies adopted by the Federal Reserve (and by other central banks around the world) are usually thought of as temporary emergency measures. If these steps are, indeed, to be temporary, then the Federal Reserve will need to stop making these additional loans and sell off the financial securities it has accumulated. The concern is that the process of quantitative easing may prove more difficult to reverse than it was to enact. The evidence suggests that QE<sub>1<\/sub>\u00a0was somewhat successful, but that QE<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0and QE<sub>3<\/sub>\u00a0have been less so.<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<section id=\"fs-idp1628816\">\r\n<h2>Shortcomings of Monetary Policy<\/h2>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp7647456\">In the real world, effective monetary policy faces a number of significant hurdles. Monetary policy affects the economy only after a time lag that is typically long and of variable length. Remember, monetary policy involves a chain of events: the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">central bank<\/span>\u00a0must perceive a situation in the economy, hold a meeting, and make a decision to react by tightening or loosening monetary policy. The change in monetary policy must percolate through the banking system, changing the quantity of loans and affecting interest rates. When interest rates change, businesses must change their investment levels and consumers must change their borrowing patterns when purchasing homes or cars. Then it takes time for these changes to filter through the rest of the economy.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp433616\">As a result of this chain of events, monetary policy has little effect in the immediate future; instead, its primary effects are felt perhaps one to three years in the future. The reality of long and variable time lags does not mean that a central bank should refuse to make decisions. It does mean that central banks should be humble about taking action, because of the risk that their actions can create as much or more economic instability as they resolve.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<section id=\"fs-idp33604816\">\r\n<h3>Excess Reserves - Cyclical Asymetry<\/h3>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp81377104\">Banks are legally required to hold a minimum level of reserves, but no rule prohibits them from holding additional\u00a0excess reserves above the legally mandated limit. For example, during a recession banks may be hesitant to lend, because they fear that when the economy is contracting, a high proportion of loan applicants become less likely to repay their loans.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm43462128\">When many banks are choosing to hold excess reserves, expansionary monetary policy may not work well. This may occur because the banks are concerned about a deteriorating economy, while the central bank is trying to expand the money supply. If the banks prefer to hold excess reserves above the legally required level, the central bank cannot force individual banks to make loans. Similarly, sensible businesses and consumers may be reluctant to borrow substantial amounts of money in a\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">recession<\/span>, because they recognize that firms\u2019 sales and employees\u2019 jobs are more insecure in a recession, and they do not want to face the need to make interest payments. The result is that during an especially deep recession, an expansionary monetary policy may have little effect on either the price level or the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">real GDP<\/span>.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp81069616\">Japan experienced this situation in the 1990s and early 2000s. Japan\u2019s economy entered a period of very slow growth, dipping in and out of recession, in the early 1990s. By February 1999, the Bank of Japan had lowered the equivalent of its federal funds rate to 0%. It kept it there most of the time through 2003. Moreover, in the two years from March 2001 to March 2003, the Bank of Japan also expanded the money supply of the country by about 50%\u2014an enormous increase. Even this highly expansionary monetary policy, however, had no substantial effect on stimulating aggregate demand. Japan\u2019s economy continued to experience extremely slow growth into the mid-2000s.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp84692480\" class=\"note economics clearup ui-has-child-title\">\u00a0The problem of excess reserves does not affect contractionary policy. Central bankers have an old saying that monetary policy can be like pulling and pushing on a string: when the central bank pulls on the string and uses contractionary monetary policy, it can definitely raise interest rates and reduce aggregate demand. However, when the central bank tries to push on the string of expansionary monetary policy, the string may sometimes just fold up limp and have little effect, because banks decide not to loan out their excess reserves. This analogy should not be taken too literally\u2014expansionary monetary policy usually does have real effects, after that inconveniently long and variable lag. There are also times, like Japan\u2019s economy in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when expansionary monetary policy has been insufficient to lift a recession-prone economy.<\/div>\r\n<\/section><\/section>\r\n<div><section id=\"fs-idp108933952\">\r\n<h3>Unpredictable Movements of Velocity<\/h3>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp120217808\">Velocity is a term that economists use to describe how quickly money circulates through the economy. The\u00a0velocity\u00a0of money in a year is defined as:<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp27763056\" class=\"equation\">\r\n<div class=\"MathJax_Display\" style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong><span id=\"MathJax-Element-1-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" style=\"font-style: normal;line-height: normal;text-indent: 0px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: normal;float: none;direction: ltr;max-width: none;max-height: none;min-width: 0px;min-height: 0px;border: 0px;padding: 0px;margin: 0px\" role=\"presentation\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-1\" class=\"math\" role=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-2\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-3\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-4\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-5\" class=\"mtable\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-6\" class=\"mtd\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-7\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-8\" class=\"mtext\">Velocity<\/span><\/span><\/span><span id=\"MathJax-Span-9\" class=\"mtd\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-10\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-11\" class=\"mtext\">\u00a0=\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><span id=\"MathJax-Span-12\" class=\"mtd\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-13\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-14\" class=\"mfrac\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-15\" class=\"mtext\">nominal\u00a0GDP \/\u00a0<\/span><span id=\"MathJax-Span-16\" class=\"mtext\">money\u00a0supply<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp129550576\">Specific measurements of velocity depend on the definition of the money supply being used. Consider the velocity of\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">M1<\/span>, the total amount of currency in circulation and checking account balances. In 2009, for example, M1 was $1.7 trillion and nominal GDP was $14.3 trillion, so the velocity of M1 was 8.4 ($14.3 trillion\/$1.7 trillion). A higher velocity of money means that the average dollar circulates more times in a year; a lower velocity means that the average dollar circulates fewer times in a year.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"textbox shaded\"><header>\r\n<div class=\"title\">WHAT HAPPENS DURING EPISODES OF DEFLATION?<\/div>\r\n<\/header><section>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp111366880\"><span class=\"no-emphasis\">Deflation<\/span>\u00a0occurs when the rate of inflation is negative; that is, instead of money having less purchasing power over time, as occurs with inflation, money is worth more. Deflation can make it very difficult for monetary policy to address a recession.<\/p>\r\nRemember that the real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. If the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">nominal interest rate<\/span>\u00a0is 7% and the rate of inflation is 3%, then the borrower is effectively paying a 4% real interest rate. If the nominal interest rate is 7% and there is\u00a0<em>deflation<\/em>\u00a0of 2%, then the real interest rate is actually 9%. In this way, an unexpected deflation raises the real interest payments for borrowers. It can lead to a situation where an unexpectedly high number of loans are not repaid, and banks find that their net worth is decreasing or negative. When banks are suffering losses, they become less able and eager to make new loans. Aggregate demand declines, which can lead to recession.\r\n\r\nIn the U.S. economy during the early 1930s, deflation was 6.7% per year from 1930\u20131933, which caused many borrowers to default on their loans and many banks to end up bankrupt, which in turn contributed substantially to the Great Depression. Not all episodes of deflation, however, end in economic depression. Japan, for example, experienced deflation of slightly less than 1% per year from 1999\u20132002, which hurt the Japanese economy, but it still grew by about 0.9% per year over this period. Indeed, there is at least one historical example of deflation coexisting with rapid growth. The U.S. economy experienced deflation of about 1.1% per year over the quarter-century from 1876\u20131900, but real GDP also expanded at a rapid clip of 4% per year over this time, despite some occasional severe recessions.\r\n\r\nThen the double-whammy: After causing a recession, deflation can make it difficult for monetary policy to work. Say that the central bank uses expansionary monetary policy to reduce the nominal interest rate all the way to zero\u2014but the economy has 5% deflation. As a result, the real interest rate is 5%, and because a central bank cannot make the nominal interest rate negative, expansionary policy cannot reduce the real interest rate further. \u00a0In the U.S. economy during the early 1930s, deflation was 6.7% per year from 1930\u20131933, which caused many borrowers to default on their loans and many banks to end up bankrupt, which in turn contributed substantially to the Great Depression. Not all episodes of deflation, however, end in economic depression.\r\n\r\nJapan, for example, experienced deflation of slightly less than 1% per year from 1999\u20132002, which hurt the Japanese economy, but it still grew by about 0.9% per year over this period. Indeed, there is at least one historical example of deflation coexisting with rapid growth. The U.S. economy experienced deflation of about 1.1% per year over the quarter-century from 1876\u20131900, but real GDP also expanded at a rapid clip of 4% per year over this time, despite some occasional severe recessions.\r\n\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<div><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp53473568\" class=\"note economics clearup ui-has-child-title\"><header><\/header><section>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp172318016\">The central bank should be on guard against deflation and, if necessary, use expansionary monetary policy to prevent any long-lasting or extreme deflation from occurring. Except in severe cases like the Great Depression, deflation does not guarantee economic disaster.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm73105584\">Changes in velocity can cause problems for monetary policy. To understand why, rewrite the definition of velocity so that the money supply is on the left-hand side of the equation. That is:<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp13823680\" class=\"equation\">\r\n<div class=\"MathJax_Display\" style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong><span id=\"MathJax-Element-2-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" style=\"font-style: normal;line-height: normal;text-indent: 0px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: normal;float: none;direction: ltr;max-width: none;max-height: none;min-width: 0px;min-height: 0px;border: 0px;padding: 0px;margin: 0px\" role=\"presentation\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-17\" class=\"math\" role=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-18\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-19\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-20\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-21\" class=\"mtext\">Money\u00a0supply\u00a0\u00d7\u00a0velocity\u00a0=\u00a0Nominal\u00a0GDP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<p id=\"eip-id1168278738018\">Recall\u00a0that<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"eip-id1168278898840\" class=\"equation\">\r\n<div class=\"MathJax_Display\" style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong><span id=\"MathJax-Element-3-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" style=\"font-style: normal;line-height: normal;text-indent: 0px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: normal;float: none;direction: ltr;max-width: none;max-height: none;min-width: 0px;min-height: 0px;border: 0px;padding: 0px;margin: 0px\" role=\"presentation\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-22\" class=\"math\" role=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-23\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-24\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-25\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-26\" class=\"mtext\">Nominal GDP = Price Level (or GDP Deflator) \u00d7 Real GDP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<p id=\"eip-id1168268368833\">Therefore,<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"eip-id1168269394336\" class=\"equation\">\r\n<div class=\"MathJax_Display\" style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong><span id=\"MathJax-Element-4-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" style=\"font-style: normal;line-height: normal;text-indent: 0px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: normal;float: none;direction: ltr;max-width: none;max-height: none;min-width: 0px;min-height: 0px;border: 0px;padding: 0px;margin: 0px\" role=\"presentation\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-27\" class=\"math\" role=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-28\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-29\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-30\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-31\" class=\"mtext\">Money Supply \u00d7 velocity = Nominal GDP = Price Level \u00d7 Real GDP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm76022928\">This equation is sometimes called the\u00a0basic quantity equation of money\u00a0but, as you can see, it is just the definition of velocity written in a different form. This equation must hold true, by definition.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm139942528\">If velocity is constant over time, then a certain percentage rise in the money supply on the left-hand side of the basic quantity equation of money will inevitably lead to the same percentage rise in\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">nominal GDP<\/span>\u2014although this change could happen through an increase in inflation, or an increase in\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">real GDP<\/span>, or some combination of the two. If velocity is changing over time but in a constant and predictable way, then changes in the money supply will continue to have a predictable effect on nominal GDP. If velocity changes unpredictably over time, however, then the effect of changes in the money supply on nominal GDP becomes unpredictable.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm118722928\">The actual velocity of money in the U.S. economy as measured by using M1, the most common definition of the money supply, is illustrated in Fig. 1. From 1960 up to about 1980, velocity appears fairly predictable; that is, it is increasing at a fairly constant rate. In the early 1980s, however, velocity as calculated with M1 becomes more variable. The reasons for these sharp changes in velocity remain a puzzle. Economists suspect that the changes in velocity are related to innovations in banking and finance which have changed how money is used in making economic transactions: for example, the growth of electronic payments; a rise in personal borrowing and credit card usage; and accounts that make it easier for people to hold money in savings accounts, where it is counted as M2, right up to the moment that they want to write a check on the money and transfer it to M1. So far at least, it has proven difficult to draw clear links between these kinds of factors and the specific up-and-down fluctuations in M1. Given many changes in banking and the prevalence of electronic banking,\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">M2<\/span>\u00a0is now favored as a measure of money rather than the narrower M1.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econv1-2_C28_11\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\r\n<div class=\"title\">Fig.1-Velocity Calculated Using M1<\/div>\r\n<span id=\"fs-idm76372016\"><img src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/3491368f48c66ae68e658fa7b2f32f8a9b512d26\/CNX_Econv1-2_C28_11.jpg\" alt=\"This graph shows the velocity of money increasing over time.\" \/><\/span>\r\n\r\n<figcaption>Velocity is the nominal GDP divided by the money supply for a given year. Different measures of velocity can be calculated by using different measures of the money supply. Velocity, as calculated by using M1, has lacked a steady trend since the 1980s, instead bouncing up and down. (credit: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm125181904\">In the 1970s, when velocity as measured by M1 seemed predictable, a number of economists, led by Nobel laureate\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Milton Friedman<\/span>(1912\u20132006), argued that the best monetary policy was for the central bank to increase the money supply at a constant growth rate. These economists argued that with the long and variable lags of monetary policy, and the political pressures on central bankers, central bank monetary policies were as likely to have undesirable as to have desirable effects. Thus, these economists believed that the monetary policy should seek steady growth in the money supply of 3% per year. They argued that a steady rate of monetary growth would be correct over longer time periods, since it would roughly match the growth of the real economy. In addition, they argued that giving the central bank less discretion to conduct monetary policy would prevent an overly activist central bank from becoming a source of economic instability and uncertainty. In this spirit, Friedman wrote in 1967: \u201cThe first and most important lesson that history teaches about what monetary policy can do\u2014and it is a lesson of the most profound importance\u2014is that monetary policy can prevent money itself from being a major source of economic disturbance.\u201d<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp37215232\">As the velocity of M1 began to fluctuate in the 1980s, having the money supply grow at a predetermined and unchanging rate seemed less desirable, because as the quantity theory of money shows, the combination of constant growth in the money supply and fluctuating velocity would cause nominal GDP to rise and fall in unpredictable ways. The jumpiness of velocity in the 1980s caused many central banks to focus less on the rate at which the quantity of money in the economy was increasing, and instead to set monetary policy by reacting to whether the economy was experiencing or in danger of higher inflation or unemployment.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/section><section id=\"fs-idm31056528\">\r\n<h3>Unemployment and Inflation<\/h3>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm82678640\">If you were to survey central bankers around the world and ask them what they believe should be the primary task of monetary policy, the most popular answer by far would be fighting inflation. Most central bankers believe that the neoclassical model of economics accurately represents the economy over the medium to long term. Remember that in the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">neoclassical model<\/span>\u00a0of the economy, the aggregate supply curve is drawn as a vertical line at the level of potential GDP, as shown in\u00a0<a class=\"autogenerated-content\" href=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/contents\/aWGdK2jw@11.345:XK1hKRgt@10\/Pitfalls-for-Monetary-Policy#CNX_Econ_C28_009\">Figure<\/a>. In the neoclassical model, the level of potential GDP (and the natural rate of unemployment that exists when the economy is producing at potential GDP) is determined by real economic factors. If the original level of\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">aggregate demand<\/span>\u00a0is AD<sub>0<\/sub>, then an expansionary monetary policy that shifts aggregate demand to AD<sub>1<\/sub>\u00a0only creates an inflationary increase in the price level, but it does not alter GDP or unemployment. From this perspective, all that monetary policy can do is to lead to low inflation or high inflation\u2014and low inflation provides a better climate for a healthy and growing economy. After all, low inflation means that businesses making investments can focus on real economic issues, not on figuring out ways to protect themselves from the costs and risks of inflation. In this way, a consistent pattern of low inflation can contribute to long-term growth.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econ_C28_009\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\r\n<div class=\"title\">Monetary Policy in a Neoclassical Model<\/div>\r\n<span id=\"fs-idm133101296\"><img src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/e741522de73fa7e1c5d1a36e6db3f1e5ffa55eda\/CNX_Econ_C28_009.jpg\" alt=\"This graph shows the neo-classical view that in the long run, monetary policy only affects the price level, not output.\" \/><\/span>\r\n\r\n<figcaption>In a neoclassical view, monetary policy affects only the price level, not the level of output in the economy. For example, an expansionary monetary policy causes aggregate demand to shift from the original AD<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0to AD<sub>1<\/sub>. However, the adjustment of the economy from the original equilibrium (E<sub>0<\/sub>) to the new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) represents an inflationary increase in the price level from P<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0to P<sub>1<\/sub>, but has no effect in the long run on output or the unemployment rate. In fact, no shift in AD will affect the equilibrium quantity of output in this model.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp59740704\">This vision of focusing monetary policy on a low rate of inflation is so attractive that many countries have rewritten their central banking laws since in the 1990s to have their bank practice\u00a0inflation targeting, which means that the central bank is legally required to focus primarily on keeping inflation low. By 2014, central banks in 28 countries, including Austria, Brazil, Canada, Israel, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, and the United Kingdom faced a legal requirement to target the inflation rate. A notable exception is the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Federal Reserve<\/span>\u00a0in the United States, which does not practice inflation-targeting. Instead, the law governing the Federal Reserve requires it to take both unemployment and inflation into account.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp118337584\">Economists have no final consensus on whether a central bank should be required to focus only on inflation or should have greater discretion. For those who subscribe to the inflation targeting philosophy, the fear is that politicians who are worried about slow economic growth and unemployment will constantly pressure the central bank to conduct a loose monetary policy\u2014even if the economy is already producing at\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">potential GDP<\/span>. In some countries, the central bank may lack the political power to resist such pressures, with the result of higher inflation, but no long-term reduction in unemployment. The U.S. Federal Reserve has a tradition of independence, but central banks in other countries may be under greater political pressure. For all of these reasons\u2014long and variable lags, excess reserves, unstable velocity, and controversy over economic goals\u2014monetary policy in the real world is often difficult. The basic message remains, however, that central banks can affect aggregate demand through the conduct of monetary policy and in that way influence macroeconomic outcomes.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/section><\/div>\r\n<section id=\"fs-idp1628816\">\r\n<h2>Federal Reserve Actions Over Last Four Decades<\/h2>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm72864\">For the period from the mid-1970s up through the end of 2007, Federal Reserve monetary policy can largely be summed up by looking at how it targeted the federal funds interest rate using open market operations.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm5200\">Of course, telling the story of the U.S. economy since 1975 in terms of Federal Reserve actions leaves out many other macroeconomic factors that were influencing unemployment, recession, economic growth, and inflation over this time. The nine episodes of Federal Reserve action outlined in the sections below also demonstrate that the central bank should be considered one of the leading actors influencing the macro economy. As noted earlier, the single person with the greatest power to influence the U.S. economy is probably the chairperson of the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp9023376\">Fig.3 shows how the Federal Reserve has carried out monetary policy by targeting the federal funds interest rate in the last few decades. The graph shows the federal funds interest rate (remember, this interest rate is set through open market operations), the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">unemployment rate<\/span>, and the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">inflation rate<\/span>\u00a0since 1975. Different episodes of monetary policy during this period are indicated in the figure.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econv1-2_C28_10\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\r\n<div class=\"title\">Fig.3-Monetary Policy, Unemployment, and Inflation<\/div>\r\n<span id=\"fs-idp661936\"><img src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/62705042f164031923e26ed9e5640203333c5449\/CNX_Econv1-2_C28_10.jpg\" alt=\"This graph shows the historical rate of inflation, unemployment and the federal funds interest rate during periods of recession.\" \/><\/span>\r\n\r\n<figcaption>Through the episodes shown here, the Federal Reserve typically reacted to higher inflation with a contractionary monetary policy and a higher interest rate, and reacted to higher unemployment with an expansionary monetary policy and a lower interest rate.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm547328\"><strong>Episode 1<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm546576\">Consider Episode 1 in the late 1970s. The rate of inflation was very high, exceeding 10% in 1979 and 1980, so the Federal Reserve used tight monetary policy to raise interest rates, with the federal funds rate rising from 5.5% in 1977 to 16.4% in 1981. By 1983, inflation was down to 3.2%, but aggregate demand contracted sharply enough that back-to-back recessions occurred in 1980 and in 1981\u20131982, and the unemployment rate rose from 5.8% in 1979 to 9.7% in 1982.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm24176\"><strong>Episode 2<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp135520\">In Episode 2, when the Federal Reserve was persuaded in the early 1980s that inflation was declining, the Fed began slashing interest rates to reduce unemployment. The federal funds interest rate fell from 16.4% in 1981 to 6.8% in 1986. By 1986 or so, inflation had fallen to about 2% and the unemployment rate had come down to 7%, and was still falling.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp9116752\"><strong>Episode 3<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp9117504\">However, in Episode 3 in the late 1980s, inflation appeared to be creeping up again, rising from 2% in 1986 up toward 5% by 1989. In response, the Federal Reserve used contractionary monetary policy to raise the federal funds rates from 6.6% in 1987 to 9.2% in 1989. The tighter monetary policy stopped inflation, which fell from above 5% in 1990 to under 3% in 1992, but it also helped to cause the recession of 1990\u20131991, and the unemployment rate rose from 5.3% in 1989 to 7.5% by 1992.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp9117888\"><strong>Episode 4<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp725360\">In Episode 4, in the early 1990s, when the Federal Reserve was confident that inflation was back under control, it reduced interest rates, with the federal funds interest rate falling from 8.1% in 1990 to 3.5% in 1992. As the economy expanded, the unemployment rate declined from 7.5% in 1992 to less than 5% by 1997.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp9140752\"><strong>Episodes 5 and 6<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp9141504\">In Episodes 5 and 6, the Federal Reserve perceived a risk of inflation and raised the federal funds rate from 3% to 5.8% from 1993 to 1995. Inflation did not rise, and the period of economic growth during the 1990s continued. Then in 1999 and 2000, the Fed was concerned that inflation seemed to be creeping up so it raised the federal funds interest rate from 4.6% in December 1998 to 6.5% in June 2000. By early 2001, inflation was declining again, but a recession occurred in 2001. Between 2000 and 2002, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 5.8%.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp738720\"><strong>Episodes 7 and 8<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm27328\">In Episodes 7 and 8, the Federal Reserve conducted a loose monetary policy and slashed the federal funds rate from 6.2% in 2000 to just 1.7% in 2002, and then again to 1% in 2003. They actually did this because of fear of Japan-style deflation; this persuaded them to lower the Fed funds further than they otherwise would have. The recession ended, but, unemployment rates were slow to decline in the early 2000s. Finally, in 2004, the unemployment rate declined and the Federal Reserve began to raise the federal funds rate until it reached 5% by 2007.<\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm26368\"><strong>Episode 9<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idm158640\">In Episode 9, as the Great Recession took hold in 2008, the Federal Reserve was quick to slash interest rates, taking them down to 2% in 2008 and to nearly 0% in 2009. When the Fed had taken interest rates down to near-zero by December 2008, the economy was still deep in recession. Open market operations could not make the interest rate turn negative. The Federal Reserve had to think \u201coutside the box.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/section><section id=\"fs-idp9045664\">\r\n<div id=\"fs-idp60976\"><\/div>\r\n<p id=\"fs-idp126048\"><\/p>\r\n\r\n<\/section>","rendered":"<p id=\"fs-idp58079680\">A monetary policy that lowers interest rates and stimulates borrowing is known as an\u00a0<strong>expansionary monetary policy<\/strong>\u00a0or easy (loose) monetary policy. Conversely, a monetary policy that raises interest rates and reduces borrowing in the economy is a\u00a0<strong>contractionary monetary policy<\/strong>\u00a0or\u00a0tight monetary policy. This module will discuss how expansionary and contractionary monetary policies affect interest rates and aggregate demand, and how such policies will affect macroeconomic goals like unemployment and inflation. We will conclude with a look at the Fed\u2019s monetary policy practice in recent decades.<\/p>\n<section id=\"fs-idm78734896\">\n<table class=\"lines\" style=\"width: 850px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24061258\/fed-report-credit.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6875\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24061258\/fed-report-credit.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"628\" height=\"449\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 350px;vertical-align: top\">\n<div class=\"textbox learning-objectives\">\n<h3>Learning Objectives<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Money markets: \u00a0Money supply and interest rates<\/li>\n<li>Types of monetary policy<\/li>\n<li>Purpose of monetary policy &#8211; Impact of aggregate demand<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h1>The Effect of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates<\/h1>\n<p id=\"fs-idm54023136\">Consider the market for loanable bank funds, shown in Fig. 1. The original equilibrium (E<sub>0<\/sub>) occurs at an interest rate of 8% and a quantity of funds loaned and borrowed of $10 billion. An expansionary monetary policy will shift the supply of loanable funds to the right from the original supply curve (S<sub>0<\/sub>) to S<sub>1<\/sub>, leading to an equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) with a lower interest rate of 6% and a quantity of funds loaned of $14 billion. Conversely, a contractionary monetary policy will shift the supply of loanable funds to the left from the original supply curve (S<sub>0<\/sub>) to S<sub>2<\/sub>, leading to an equilibrium (E<sub>2<\/sub>) with a higher interest rate of 10% and a quantity of funds loaned of $8 billion.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econ_C28_002\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\n<div class=\"title\">Fig. 1-Monetary Policy and Interest Rates<\/div>\n<p><span id=\"fs-idp468784\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/2c9e3cbaa5f45230aa309098503c1d1ff665cf36\/CNX_Econ_C28_002.jpg\" alt=\"This graph shows how monetary policy shifts the supply of loanable funds.\" \/><\/span><figcaption>The original equilibrium occurs at E<sub>0<\/sub>. An expansionary monetary policy will shift the supply of loanable funds to the right from the original supply curve (S<sub>0<\/sub>) to the new supply curve (S<sub>1<\/sub>) and to a new equilibrium of E<sub>1<\/sub>, reducing the interest rate from 8% to 6%. A contractionary monetary policy will shift the supply of loanable funds to the left from the original supply curve (S<sub>0<\/sub>) to the new supply (S<sub>2<\/sub>), and raise the interest rate from 8% to 10%.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"fs-idm96661744\">So how does a central bank \u201craise\u201d interest rates? When describing the monetary policy actions taken by a central bank, it is common to hear that the central bank \u201craised interest rates\u201d or \u201clowered interest rates.\u201d We need to be clear about this: more precisely, through open market operations the central bank changes bank reserves in a way which affects the supply curve of loanable funds. As a result, interest rates change, as shown in Fig.1. If they do not meet the Fed\u2019s target, the Fed can supply more or less reserves until interest rates do.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm115376560\">Recall that the specific interest rate the Fed targets is the\u00a0federal funds rate. The Federal Reserve has, since 1995, established its target federal funds rate in advance of any open market operations.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm2170128\">Of course, financial markets display a wide range of\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">interest rates<\/span>, representing borrowers with different risk premiums and loans that are to be repaid over different periods of time. In general, when the federal funds rate drops substantially, other interest rates drop, too, and when the federal funds rate rises, other interest rates rise. However, a fall or rise of one percentage point in the federal funds rate\u2014which remember is for borrowing overnight\u2014will typically have an effect of less than one percentage point on a 30-year loan to purchase a house or a three-year loan to purchase a car. Monetary policy can push the entire spectrum of interest rates higher or lower, but the specific interest rates are set by the forces of supply and demand in those specific markets for lending and borrowing.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow: hidden;width: 600px;height: 425px\" src=\"\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/graph-landing.php?g=ets9&amp;width=600&amp;height=425\" width=\"650\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"fs-idp98596512\">\n<h1>The Effect of Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand<\/h1>\n<p id=\"fs-idp9333792\">Monetary policy affects interest rates and the available quantity of loanable funds, which in turn affects several components of aggregate demand. Tight or contractionary monetary policy that leads to higher interest rates and a reduced quantity of loanable funds will reduce two components of aggregate demand. Business investment will decline because it is less attractive for firms to borrow money, and even firms that have money will notice that, with higher interest rates, it is relatively more attractive to put those funds in a financial investment than to make an investment in physical capital. In addition, higher interest rates will discourage consumer borrowing for big-ticket items like houses and cars. Conversely, loose or expansionary monetary policy that leads to lower interest rates and a higher quantity of loanable funds will tend to increase business investment and consumer borrowing for big-ticket items.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp162497616\">If the economy is suffering a recession and high unemployment, with output below\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">potential GDP<\/span>, expansionary monetary policy can help the economy return to potential GDP. Fig.2\u00a0(a) illustrates this situation. This example uses a short-run upward-sloping\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Keynesian aggregate supply curve<\/span>\u00a0(SRAS). The original equilibrium during a recession of E<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0occurs at an output level of 600. An expansionary monetary policy will reduce interest rates and stimulate investment and consumption spending, causing the original aggregate demand curve (AD<sub>0<\/sub>) to shift right to AD<sub>1<\/sub>, so that the new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) occurs at the potential GDP level of 700.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econv1-2_C28_08\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\n<div class=\"title\">Fig. 2-Expansionary or Contractionary Monetary Policy<\/div>\n<p><span id=\"fs-idp97363200\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/35b53926d61116f064345621d8c1c954a9530e88\/CNX_Econv1-2_C28_08.jpg\" alt=\"The graph showing how changes in the money supply can restore output levels to potential GDP in times of economic instability.\" \/><\/span><figcaption>(a) The economy is originally in a recession with the equilibrium output and price level shown at E<sub>0<\/sub>. Expansionary monetary policy will reduce interest rates and shift aggregate demand to the right from AD<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0to AD<sub>1<\/sub>, leading to the new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) at the potential GDP level of output with a relatively small rise in the price level. (b) The economy is originally producing above the potential GDP level of output at the equilibrium E<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0and is experiencing pressures for an inflationary rise in the price level. Contractionary monetary policy will shift aggregate demand to the left from AD<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0to AD<sub>1<\/sub>, thus leading to a new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) at the potential GDP level of output.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"fs-idp95125824\">Conversely, if an economy is producing at a quantity of output above its potential GDP, a contractionary monetary policy can reduce the inflationary pressures for a rising price level. In Fig.2\u00a0(b), the original equilibrium (E<sub>0<\/sub>) occurs at an output of 750, which is above potential GDP. A contractionary monetary policy will raise interest rates, discourage borrowing for investment and consumption spending, and cause the original demand curve (AD<sub>0<\/sub>) to shift left to AD<sub>1<\/sub>, so that the new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) occurs at the potential GDP level of 700.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp45680144\">These examples suggest that monetary policy should be\u00a0<strong>countercyclical<\/strong>; that is, it should act to counterbalance the business cycles of economic downturns and upswings. Monetary policy should be loosened when a recession has caused unemployment to increase and tightened when inflation threatens. Of course, countercyclical policy does pose a danger of overreaction. If loose monetary policy seeking to end a recession goes too far, it may push aggregate demand so far to the right that it triggers inflation. If tight monetary policy seeking to reduce inflation goes too far, it may push aggregate demand so far to the left that a recession begins. Fig.\u00a0(a) summarizes the chain of effects that connect loose and tight monetary policy to changes in output and the price level.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econ_C28_011\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\n<div class=\"title\">The Pathways of Monetary Policy<\/div>\n<p><span id=\"fs-idm7152896\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/7aa5d8c60d3b25e02ceedce4878169f489b2df51\/CNX_Econ_C28_011.jpg\" alt=\"This image is a chart showing the mechanisms through which monetary policy affects output.\" \/><\/span><figcaption>(a) In expansionary monetary policy the central bank causes the supply of money and loanable funds to increase, which lowers the interest rate, stimulating additional borrowing for investment and consumption, and shifting aggregate demand right. The result is a higher price level and, at least in the short run, higher real GDP. (b) In contractionary monetary policy, the central bank causes the supply of money and credit in the economy to decrease, which raises the interest rate, discouraging borrowing for investment and consumption, and shifting aggregate demand left. The result is a lower price level and, at least in the short run, lower real GDP.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"fs-idp1628816\">\n<table class=\"lines\" style=\"width: 847px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 400.6px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045506\/expans-mon-pol.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6871\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045506\/expans-mon-pol.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"736\" height=\"554\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 426.4px\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045503\/contract-mon-pol.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-6870 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045503\/contract-mon-pol.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"741\" height=\"549\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Quantitative Easing<\/h2>\n<p id=\"fs-idp9046176\">The most powerful and commonly used of the three traditional tools of monetary policy\u2014open market operations\u2014works by expanding or contracting the money supply in a way that influences the interest rate. In late 2008, as the U.S. economy struggled with recession, the Federal Reserve had already reduced the interest rate to near-zero. With the recession still ongoing, the Fed decided to adopt an innovative and nontraditional policy known as\u00a0<strong>quantitative easing<\/strong> (QE). This is the <strong>purchase of long-term government and private mortgage-backed securities<\/strong> by central banks to make credit available so as to stimulate\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">aggregate demand<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Quantitative easing differed from traditional monetary policy in several key ways. First, it involved the Fed purchasing long term\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Treasury bonds<\/span>, rather than short term\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Treasury bills<\/span>. In 2008, however, it was impossible to stimulate the economy any further by lowering short term rates because they were already as low as they could get. \u00a0Therefore, Bernanke sought to lower long-term rates utilizing quantitative easing.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<p>This leads to a second way QE is different from traditional monetary policy. Instead of purchasing Treasury securities, the Fed also began purchasing private mortgage-backed securities, something it had never done before. During the financial crisis, which precipitated the recession, mortgage-backed securities were termed \u201ctoxic assets,\u201d because when the housing market collapsed, no one knew what these securities were worth, which put the financial institutions which were holding those securities on very shaky ground. By offering to purchase mortgage-backed securities, the Fed was both pushing long term interest rates down and also removing possibly \u201ctoxic assets\u201d from the balance sheets of private financial firms, which would strengthen the financial system.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp647360\">Quantitative easing (QE) occurred in three episodes:<\/p>\n<div id=\"fs-idp60976\">\n<div>During QE<sub>1<\/sub>, which began in November 2008, the Fed purchased $600 billion in mortgage-backed securities from government enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.<\/div>\n<div>In November 2010, the Fed began QE<sub>2<\/sub>, in which it purchased $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds.<\/div>\n<div>QE<sub>3<\/sub>, began in September 2012 when the Fed commenced purchasing $40 billion of additional mortgage-backed securities per month. This amount was increased in December 2012 to $85 billion per month. The Fed stated that, when economic conditions permit, it will begin tapering (or reducing the monthly purchases). By October 2014, the Fed had announced the final $15 billion purchase of bonds, ending Quantitative Easing.<\/div>\n<div>The quantitative easing policies adopted by the Federal Reserve (and by other central banks around the world) are usually thought of as temporary emergency measures. If these steps are, indeed, to be temporary, then the Federal Reserve will need to stop making these additional loans and sell off the financial securities it has accumulated. The concern is that the process of quantitative easing may prove more difficult to reverse than it was to enact. The evidence suggests that QE<sub>1<\/sub>\u00a0was somewhat successful, but that QE<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0and QE<sub>3<\/sub>\u00a0have been less so.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<section id=\"fs-idp1628816\">\n<h2>Shortcomings of Monetary Policy<\/h2>\n<p id=\"fs-idp7647456\">In the real world, effective monetary policy faces a number of significant hurdles. Monetary policy affects the economy only after a time lag that is typically long and of variable length. Remember, monetary policy involves a chain of events: the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">central bank<\/span>\u00a0must perceive a situation in the economy, hold a meeting, and make a decision to react by tightening or loosening monetary policy. The change in monetary policy must percolate through the banking system, changing the quantity of loans and affecting interest rates. When interest rates change, businesses must change their investment levels and consumers must change their borrowing patterns when purchasing homes or cars. Then it takes time for these changes to filter through the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp433616\">As a result of this chain of events, monetary policy has little effect in the immediate future; instead, its primary effects are felt perhaps one to three years in the future. The reality of long and variable time lags does not mean that a central bank should refuse to make decisions. It does mean that central banks should be humble about taking action, because of the risk that their actions can create as much or more economic instability as they resolve.<\/p>\n<section id=\"fs-idp33604816\">\n<h3>Excess Reserves &#8211; Cyclical Asymetry<\/h3>\n<p id=\"fs-idp81377104\">Banks are legally required to hold a minimum level of reserves, but no rule prohibits them from holding additional\u00a0excess reserves above the legally mandated limit. For example, during a recession banks may be hesitant to lend, because they fear that when the economy is contracting, a high proportion of loan applicants become less likely to repay their loans.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm43462128\">When many banks are choosing to hold excess reserves, expansionary monetary policy may not work well. This may occur because the banks are concerned about a deteriorating economy, while the central bank is trying to expand the money supply. If the banks prefer to hold excess reserves above the legally required level, the central bank cannot force individual banks to make loans. Similarly, sensible businesses and consumers may be reluctant to borrow substantial amounts of money in a\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">recession<\/span>, because they recognize that firms\u2019 sales and employees\u2019 jobs are more insecure in a recession, and they do not want to face the need to make interest payments. The result is that during an especially deep recession, an expansionary monetary policy may have little effect on either the price level or the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">real GDP<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp81069616\">Japan experienced this situation in the 1990s and early 2000s. Japan\u2019s economy entered a period of very slow growth, dipping in and out of recession, in the early 1990s. By February 1999, the Bank of Japan had lowered the equivalent of its federal funds rate to 0%. It kept it there most of the time through 2003. Moreover, in the two years from March 2001 to March 2003, the Bank of Japan also expanded the money supply of the country by about 50%\u2014an enormous increase. Even this highly expansionary monetary policy, however, had no substantial effect on stimulating aggregate demand. Japan\u2019s economy continued to experience extremely slow growth into the mid-2000s.<\/p>\n<div id=\"fs-idp84692480\" class=\"note economics clearup ui-has-child-title\">\u00a0The problem of excess reserves does not affect contractionary policy. Central bankers have an old saying that monetary policy can be like pulling and pushing on a string: when the central bank pulls on the string and uses contractionary monetary policy, it can definitely raise interest rates and reduce aggregate demand. However, when the central bank tries to push on the string of expansionary monetary policy, the string may sometimes just fold up limp and have little effect, because banks decide not to loan out their excess reserves. This analogy should not be taken too literally\u2014expansionary monetary policy usually does have real effects, after that inconveniently long and variable lag. There are also times, like Japan\u2019s economy in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when expansionary monetary policy has been insufficient to lift a recession-prone economy.<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<div>\n<section id=\"fs-idp108933952\">\n<h3>Unpredictable Movements of Velocity<\/h3>\n<p id=\"fs-idp120217808\">Velocity is a term that economists use to describe how quickly money circulates through the economy. The\u00a0velocity\u00a0of money in a year is defined as:<\/p>\n<div id=\"fs-idp27763056\" class=\"equation\">\n<div class=\"MathJax_Display\" style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong><span id=\"MathJax-Element-1-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" style=\"font-style: normal;line-height: normal;text-indent: 0px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: normal;float: none;direction: ltr;max-width: none;max-height: none;min-width: 0px;min-height: 0px;border: 0px;padding: 0px;margin: 0px\" role=\"presentation\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-1\" class=\"math\" role=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-2\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-3\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-4\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-5\" class=\"mtable\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-6\" class=\"mtd\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-7\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-8\" class=\"mtext\">Velocity<\/span><\/span><\/span><span id=\"MathJax-Span-9\" class=\"mtd\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-10\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-11\" class=\"mtext\">\u00a0=\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><span id=\"MathJax-Span-12\" class=\"mtd\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-13\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-14\" class=\"mfrac\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-15\" class=\"mtext\">nominal\u00a0GDP \/\u00a0<\/span><span id=\"MathJax-Span-16\" class=\"mtext\">money\u00a0supply<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"fs-idp129550576\">Specific measurements of velocity depend on the definition of the money supply being used. Consider the velocity of\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">M1<\/span>, the total amount of currency in circulation and checking account balances. In 2009, for example, M1 was $1.7 trillion and nominal GDP was $14.3 trillion, so the velocity of M1 was 8.4 ($14.3 trillion\/$1.7 trillion). A higher velocity of money means that the average dollar circulates more times in a year; a lower velocity means that the average dollar circulates fewer times in a year.<\/p>\n<div class=\"textbox shaded\">\n<header>\n<div class=\"title\">WHAT HAPPENS DURING EPISODES OF DEFLATION?<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section>\n<p id=\"fs-idp111366880\"><span class=\"no-emphasis\">Deflation<\/span>\u00a0occurs when the rate of inflation is negative; that is, instead of money having less purchasing power over time, as occurs with inflation, money is worth more. Deflation can make it very difficult for monetary policy to address a recession.<\/p>\n<p>Remember that the real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. If the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">nominal interest rate<\/span>\u00a0is 7% and the rate of inflation is 3%, then the borrower is effectively paying a 4% real interest rate. If the nominal interest rate is 7% and there is\u00a0<em>deflation<\/em>\u00a0of 2%, then the real interest rate is actually 9%. In this way, an unexpected deflation raises the real interest payments for borrowers. It can lead to a situation where an unexpectedly high number of loans are not repaid, and banks find that their net worth is decreasing or negative. When banks are suffering losses, they become less able and eager to make new loans. Aggregate demand declines, which can lead to recession.<\/p>\n<p>In the U.S. economy during the early 1930s, deflation was 6.7% per year from 1930\u20131933, which caused many borrowers to default on their loans and many banks to end up bankrupt, which in turn contributed substantially to the Great Depression. Not all episodes of deflation, however, end in economic depression. Japan, for example, experienced deflation of slightly less than 1% per year from 1999\u20132002, which hurt the Japanese economy, but it still grew by about 0.9% per year over this period. Indeed, there is at least one historical example of deflation coexisting with rapid growth. The U.S. economy experienced deflation of about 1.1% per year over the quarter-century from 1876\u20131900, but real GDP also expanded at a rapid clip of 4% per year over this time, despite some occasional severe recessions.<\/p>\n<p>Then the double-whammy: After causing a recession, deflation can make it difficult for monetary policy to work. Say that the central bank uses expansionary monetary policy to reduce the nominal interest rate all the way to zero\u2014but the economy has 5% deflation. As a result, the real interest rate is 5%, and because a central bank cannot make the nominal interest rate negative, expansionary policy cannot reduce the real interest rate further. \u00a0In the U.S. economy during the early 1930s, deflation was 6.7% per year from 1930\u20131933, which caused many borrowers to default on their loans and many banks to end up bankrupt, which in turn contributed substantially to the Great Depression. Not all episodes of deflation, however, end in economic depression.<\/p>\n<p>Japan, for example, experienced deflation of slightly less than 1% per year from 1999\u20132002, which hurt the Japanese economy, but it still grew by about 0.9% per year over this period. Indeed, there is at least one historical example of deflation coexisting with rapid growth. The U.S. economy experienced deflation of about 1.1% per year over the quarter-century from 1876\u20131900, but real GDP also expanded at a rapid clip of 4% per year over this time, despite some occasional severe recessions.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div id=\"fs-idp53473568\" class=\"note economics clearup ui-has-child-title\">\n<header><\/header>\n<section>\n<p id=\"fs-idp172318016\">The central bank should be on guard against deflation and, if necessary, use expansionary monetary policy to prevent any long-lasting or extreme deflation from occurring. Except in severe cases like the Great Depression, deflation does not guarantee economic disaster.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"fs-idm73105584\">Changes in velocity can cause problems for monetary policy. To understand why, rewrite the definition of velocity so that the money supply is on the left-hand side of the equation. That is:<\/p>\n<div id=\"fs-idp13823680\" class=\"equation\">\n<div class=\"MathJax_Display\" style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong><span id=\"MathJax-Element-2-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" style=\"font-style: normal;line-height: normal;text-indent: 0px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: normal;float: none;direction: ltr;max-width: none;max-height: none;min-width: 0px;min-height: 0px;border: 0px;padding: 0px;margin: 0px\" role=\"presentation\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-17\" class=\"math\" role=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-18\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-19\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-20\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-21\" class=\"mtext\">Money\u00a0supply\u00a0\u00d7\u00a0velocity\u00a0=\u00a0Nominal\u00a0GDP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"eip-id1168278738018\">Recall\u00a0that<\/p>\n<div id=\"eip-id1168278898840\" class=\"equation\">\n<div class=\"MathJax_Display\" style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong><span id=\"MathJax-Element-3-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" style=\"font-style: normal;line-height: normal;text-indent: 0px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: normal;float: none;direction: ltr;max-width: none;max-height: none;min-width: 0px;min-height: 0px;border: 0px;padding: 0px;margin: 0px\" role=\"presentation\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-22\" class=\"math\" role=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-23\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-24\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-25\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-26\" class=\"mtext\">Nominal GDP = Price Level (or GDP Deflator) \u00d7 Real GDP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"eip-id1168268368833\">Therefore,<\/p>\n<div id=\"eip-id1168269394336\" class=\"equation\">\n<div class=\"MathJax_Display\" style=\"text-align: center\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px\"><strong><span id=\"MathJax-Element-4-Frame\" class=\"MathJax\" style=\"font-style: normal;line-height: normal;text-indent: 0px;text-align: left;letter-spacing: normal;float: none;direction: ltr;max-width: none;max-height: none;min-width: 0px;min-height: 0px;border: 0px;padding: 0px;margin: 0px\" role=\"presentation\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-27\" class=\"math\" role=\"math\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-28\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-29\" class=\"semantics\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-30\" class=\"mrow\"><span id=\"MathJax-Span-31\" class=\"mtext\">Money Supply \u00d7 velocity = Nominal GDP = Price Level \u00d7 Real GDP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"fs-idm76022928\">This equation is sometimes called the\u00a0basic quantity equation of money\u00a0but, as you can see, it is just the definition of velocity written in a different form. This equation must hold true, by definition.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm139942528\">If velocity is constant over time, then a certain percentage rise in the money supply on the left-hand side of the basic quantity equation of money will inevitably lead to the same percentage rise in\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">nominal GDP<\/span>\u2014although this change could happen through an increase in inflation, or an increase in\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">real GDP<\/span>, or some combination of the two. If velocity is changing over time but in a constant and predictable way, then changes in the money supply will continue to have a predictable effect on nominal GDP. If velocity changes unpredictably over time, however, then the effect of changes in the money supply on nominal GDP becomes unpredictable.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm118722928\">The actual velocity of money in the U.S. economy as measured by using M1, the most common definition of the money supply, is illustrated in Fig. 1. From 1960 up to about 1980, velocity appears fairly predictable; that is, it is increasing at a fairly constant rate. In the early 1980s, however, velocity as calculated with M1 becomes more variable. The reasons for these sharp changes in velocity remain a puzzle. Economists suspect that the changes in velocity are related to innovations in banking and finance which have changed how money is used in making economic transactions: for example, the growth of electronic payments; a rise in personal borrowing and credit card usage; and accounts that make it easier for people to hold money in savings accounts, where it is counted as M2, right up to the moment that they want to write a check on the money and transfer it to M1. So far at least, it has proven difficult to draw clear links between these kinds of factors and the specific up-and-down fluctuations in M1. Given many changes in banking and the prevalence of electronic banking,\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">M2<\/span>\u00a0is now favored as a measure of money rather than the narrower M1.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econv1-2_C28_11\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\n<div class=\"title\">Fig.1-Velocity Calculated Using M1<\/div>\n<p><span id=\"fs-idm76372016\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/3491368f48c66ae68e658fa7b2f32f8a9b512d26\/CNX_Econv1-2_C28_11.jpg\" alt=\"This graph shows the velocity of money increasing over time.\" \/><\/span><figcaption>Velocity is the nominal GDP divided by the money supply for a given year. Different measures of velocity can be calculated by using different measures of the money supply. Velocity, as calculated by using M1, has lacked a steady trend since the 1980s, instead bouncing up and down. (credit: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"fs-idm125181904\">In the 1970s, when velocity as measured by M1 seemed predictable, a number of economists, led by Nobel laureate\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Milton Friedman<\/span>(1912\u20132006), argued that the best monetary policy was for the central bank to increase the money supply at a constant growth rate. These economists argued that with the long and variable lags of monetary policy, and the political pressures on central bankers, central bank monetary policies were as likely to have undesirable as to have desirable effects. Thus, these economists believed that the monetary policy should seek steady growth in the money supply of 3% per year. They argued that a steady rate of monetary growth would be correct over longer time periods, since it would roughly match the growth of the real economy. In addition, they argued that giving the central bank less discretion to conduct monetary policy would prevent an overly activist central bank from becoming a source of economic instability and uncertainty. In this spirit, Friedman wrote in 1967: \u201cThe first and most important lesson that history teaches about what monetary policy can do\u2014and it is a lesson of the most profound importance\u2014is that monetary policy can prevent money itself from being a major source of economic disturbance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp37215232\">As the velocity of M1 began to fluctuate in the 1980s, having the money supply grow at a predetermined and unchanging rate seemed less desirable, because as the quantity theory of money shows, the combination of constant growth in the money supply and fluctuating velocity would cause nominal GDP to rise and fall in unpredictable ways. The jumpiness of velocity in the 1980s caused many central banks to focus less on the rate at which the quantity of money in the economy was increasing, and instead to set monetary policy by reacting to whether the economy was experiencing or in danger of higher inflation or unemployment.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"fs-idm31056528\">\n<h3>Unemployment and Inflation<\/h3>\n<p id=\"fs-idm82678640\">If you were to survey central bankers around the world and ask them what they believe should be the primary task of monetary policy, the most popular answer by far would be fighting inflation. Most central bankers believe that the neoclassical model of economics accurately represents the economy over the medium to long term. Remember that in the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">neoclassical model<\/span>\u00a0of the economy, the aggregate supply curve is drawn as a vertical line at the level of potential GDP, as shown in\u00a0<a class=\"autogenerated-content\" href=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/contents\/aWGdK2jw@11.345:XK1hKRgt@10\/Pitfalls-for-Monetary-Policy#CNX_Econ_C28_009\">Figure<\/a>. In the neoclassical model, the level of potential GDP (and the natural rate of unemployment that exists when the economy is producing at potential GDP) is determined by real economic factors. If the original level of\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">aggregate demand<\/span>\u00a0is AD<sub>0<\/sub>, then an expansionary monetary policy that shifts aggregate demand to AD<sub>1<\/sub>\u00a0only creates an inflationary increase in the price level, but it does not alter GDP or unemployment. From this perspective, all that monetary policy can do is to lead to low inflation or high inflation\u2014and low inflation provides a better climate for a healthy and growing economy. After all, low inflation means that businesses making investments can focus on real economic issues, not on figuring out ways to protect themselves from the costs and risks of inflation. In this way, a consistent pattern of low inflation can contribute to long-term growth.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econ_C28_009\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\n<div class=\"title\">Monetary Policy in a Neoclassical Model<\/div>\n<p><span id=\"fs-idm133101296\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/e741522de73fa7e1c5d1a36e6db3f1e5ffa55eda\/CNX_Econ_C28_009.jpg\" alt=\"This graph shows the neo-classical view that in the long run, monetary policy only affects the price level, not output.\" \/><\/span><figcaption>In a neoclassical view, monetary policy affects only the price level, not the level of output in the economy. For example, an expansionary monetary policy causes aggregate demand to shift from the original AD<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0to AD<sub>1<\/sub>. However, the adjustment of the economy from the original equilibrium (E<sub>0<\/sub>) to the new equilibrium (E<sub>1<\/sub>) represents an inflationary increase in the price level from P<sub>0<\/sub>\u00a0to P<sub>1<\/sub>, but has no effect in the long run on output or the unemployment rate. In fact, no shift in AD will affect the equilibrium quantity of output in this model.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"fs-idp59740704\">This vision of focusing monetary policy on a low rate of inflation is so attractive that many countries have rewritten their central banking laws since in the 1990s to have their bank practice\u00a0inflation targeting, which means that the central bank is legally required to focus primarily on keeping inflation low. By 2014, central banks in 28 countries, including Austria, Brazil, Canada, Israel, Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, and the United Kingdom faced a legal requirement to target the inflation rate. A notable exception is the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">Federal Reserve<\/span>\u00a0in the United States, which does not practice inflation-targeting. Instead, the law governing the Federal Reserve requires it to take both unemployment and inflation into account.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp118337584\">Economists have no final consensus on whether a central bank should be required to focus only on inflation or should have greater discretion. For those who subscribe to the inflation targeting philosophy, the fear is that politicians who are worried about slow economic growth and unemployment will constantly pressure the central bank to conduct a loose monetary policy\u2014even if the economy is already producing at\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">potential GDP<\/span>. In some countries, the central bank may lack the political power to resist such pressures, with the result of higher inflation, but no long-term reduction in unemployment. The U.S. Federal Reserve has a tradition of independence, but central banks in other countries may be under greater political pressure. For all of these reasons\u2014long and variable lags, excess reserves, unstable velocity, and controversy over economic goals\u2014monetary policy in the real world is often difficult. The basic message remains, however, that central banks can affect aggregate demand through the conduct of monetary policy and in that way influence macroeconomic outcomes.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<section id=\"fs-idp1628816\">\n<h2>Federal Reserve Actions Over Last Four Decades<\/h2>\n<p id=\"fs-idm72864\">For the period from the mid-1970s up through the end of 2007, Federal Reserve monetary policy can largely be summed up by looking at how it targeted the federal funds interest rate using open market operations.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm5200\">Of course, telling the story of the U.S. economy since 1975 in terms of Federal Reserve actions leaves out many other macroeconomic factors that were influencing unemployment, recession, economic growth, and inflation over this time. The nine episodes of Federal Reserve action outlined in the sections below also demonstrate that the central bank should be considered one of the leading actors influencing the macro economy. As noted earlier, the single person with the greatest power to influence the U.S. economy is probably the chairperson of the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp9023376\">Fig.3 shows how the Federal Reserve has carried out monetary policy by targeting the federal funds interest rate in the last few decades. The graph shows the federal funds interest rate (remember, this interest rate is set through open market operations), the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">unemployment rate<\/span>, and the\u00a0<span class=\"no-emphasis\">inflation rate<\/span>\u00a0since 1975. Different episodes of monetary policy during this period are indicated in the figure.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"CNX_Econv1-2_C28_10\" class=\"ui-has-child-figcaption\">\n<div class=\"title\">Fig.3-Monetary Policy, Unemployment, and Inflation<\/div>\n<p><span id=\"fs-idp661936\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/resources\/62705042f164031923e26ed9e5640203333c5449\/CNX_Econv1-2_C28_10.jpg\" alt=\"This graph shows the historical rate of inflation, unemployment and the federal funds interest rate during periods of recession.\" \/><\/span><figcaption>Through the episodes shown here, the Federal Reserve typically reacted to higher inflation with a contractionary monetary policy and a higher interest rate, and reacted to higher unemployment with an expansionary monetary policy and a lower interest rate.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"fs-idm547328\"><strong>Episode 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm546576\">Consider Episode 1 in the late 1970s. The rate of inflation was very high, exceeding 10% in 1979 and 1980, so the Federal Reserve used tight monetary policy to raise interest rates, with the federal funds rate rising from 5.5% in 1977 to 16.4% in 1981. By 1983, inflation was down to 3.2%, but aggregate demand contracted sharply enough that back-to-back recessions occurred in 1980 and in 1981\u20131982, and the unemployment rate rose from 5.8% in 1979 to 9.7% in 1982.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm24176\"><strong>Episode 2<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp135520\">In Episode 2, when the Federal Reserve was persuaded in the early 1980s that inflation was declining, the Fed began slashing interest rates to reduce unemployment. The federal funds interest rate fell from 16.4% in 1981 to 6.8% in 1986. By 1986 or so, inflation had fallen to about 2% and the unemployment rate had come down to 7%, and was still falling.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp9116752\"><strong>Episode 3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp9117504\">However, in Episode 3 in the late 1980s, inflation appeared to be creeping up again, rising from 2% in 1986 up toward 5% by 1989. In response, the Federal Reserve used contractionary monetary policy to raise the federal funds rates from 6.6% in 1987 to 9.2% in 1989. The tighter monetary policy stopped inflation, which fell from above 5% in 1990 to under 3% in 1992, but it also helped to cause the recession of 1990\u20131991, and the unemployment rate rose from 5.3% in 1989 to 7.5% by 1992.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp9117888\"><strong>Episode 4<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp725360\">In Episode 4, in the early 1990s, when the Federal Reserve was confident that inflation was back under control, it reduced interest rates, with the federal funds interest rate falling from 8.1% in 1990 to 3.5% in 1992. As the economy expanded, the unemployment rate declined from 7.5% in 1992 to less than 5% by 1997.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp9140752\"><strong>Episodes 5 and 6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp9141504\">In Episodes 5 and 6, the Federal Reserve perceived a risk of inflation and raised the federal funds rate from 3% to 5.8% from 1993 to 1995. Inflation did not rise, and the period of economic growth during the 1990s continued. Then in 1999 and 2000, the Fed was concerned that inflation seemed to be creeping up so it raised the federal funds interest rate from 4.6% in December 1998 to 6.5% in June 2000. By early 2001, inflation was declining again, but a recession occurred in 2001. Between 2000 and 2002, the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 5.8%.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idp738720\"><strong>Episodes 7 and 8<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm27328\">In Episodes 7 and 8, the Federal Reserve conducted a loose monetary policy and slashed the federal funds rate from 6.2% in 2000 to just 1.7% in 2002, and then again to 1% in 2003. They actually did this because of fear of Japan-style deflation; this persuaded them to lower the Fed funds further than they otherwise would have. The recession ended, but, unemployment rates were slow to decline in the early 2000s. Finally, in 2004, the unemployment rate declined and the Federal Reserve began to raise the federal funds rate until it reached 5% by 2007.<\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm26368\"><strong>Episode 9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"fs-idm158640\">In Episode 9, as the Great Recession took hold in 2008, the Federal Reserve was quick to slash interest rates, taking them down to 2% in 2008 and to nearly 0% in 2009. When the Fed had taken interest rates down to near-zero by December 2008, the economy was still deep in recession. Open market operations could not make the interest rate turn negative. The Federal Reserve had to think \u201coutside the box.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"fs-idp9045664\">\n<div id=\"fs-idp60976\"><\/div>\n<p id=\"fs-idp126048\">\n<\/section>\n\n\t\t\t <section class=\"citations-section\" role=\"contentinfo\">\n\t\t\t <h3>Candela Citations<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t <div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t <div id=\"citation-list-6866\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <div class=\"licensing\"><div class=\"license-attribution-dropdown-subheading\">CC licensed content, Original<\/div><ul class=\"citation-list\"><li>Monetary Policy slide. <strong>Authored by<\/strong>: S.Haci. <strong>Located at<\/strong>: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045506\/expans-mon-pol.png\">https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045506\/expans-mon-pol.png<\/a>. <strong>License<\/strong>: <em><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY: Attribution<\/a><\/em><\/li><li>monetary policy contractionary slide. <strong>Authored by<\/strong>: S. Haci. <strong>Located at<\/strong>: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045503\/contract-mon-pol.png\">https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045503\/contract-mon-pol.png<\/a>. <strong>License<\/strong>: <em><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY: Attribution<\/a><\/em><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"license-attribution-dropdown-subheading\">CC licensed content, Shared previously<\/div><ul class=\"citation-list\"><li>Principles of Economics - chapter 28. <strong>Authored by<\/strong>: Openstax. <strong>Provided by<\/strong>: Rice University. <strong>Located at<\/strong>: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/contents\/aWGdK2jw@11.345:j_nu79B9@7\/Monetary-Policy-and-Economic-O\">https:\/\/cnx.org\/contents\/aWGdK2jw@11.345:j_nu79B9@7\/Monetary-Policy-and-Economic-O<\/a>. <strong>License<\/strong>: <em><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY: Attribution<\/a><\/em><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"license-attribution-dropdown-subheading\">Public domain content<\/div><ul class=\"citation-list\"><li>Interest rate graph. <strong>Authored by<\/strong>: FRED - FED st Louis. <strong>Provided by<\/strong>: FED St Louis. <strong>Located at<\/strong>: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/INTDSRUSM193N\">https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/INTDSRUSM193N<\/a>. <strong>License<\/strong>: <em><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/about\/pdm\">Public Domain: No Known Copyright<\/a><\/em><\/li><li>FED report. <strong>Authored by<\/strong>: FED. <strong>Provided by<\/strong>: FED. <strong>Located at<\/strong>: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24061258\/fed-report-credit.png\">https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24061258\/fed-report-credit.png<\/a>. <strong>License<\/strong>: <em><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/about\/pdm\">Public Domain: No Known Copyright<\/a><\/em><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t <\/div>\n\t\t\t <\/section>","protected":false},"author":18767,"menu_order":7,"template":"","meta":{"_candela_citation":"[{\"type\":\"pd\",\"description\":\"Interest rate graph\",\"author\":\"FRED - FED st Louis\",\"organization\":\"FED St Louis\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/INTDSRUSM193N\",\"project\":\"\",\"license\":\"pd\",\"license_terms\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"cc\",\"description\":\"Principles of Economics - chapter 28\",\"author\":\"Openstax\",\"organization\":\"Rice University\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cnx.org\/contents\/aWGdK2jw@11.345:j_nu79B9@7\/Monetary-Policy-and-Economic-O\",\"project\":\"\",\"license\":\"cc-by\",\"license_terms\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"original\",\"description\":\"Monetary Policy slide\",\"author\":\"S.Haci\",\"organization\":\"\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com\/courses-images\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1681\/2017\/07\/24045506\/expans-mon-pol.png\",\"project\":\"\",\"license\":\"cc-by\",\"license_terms\":\"\"},{\"type\":\"original\",\"description\":\"monetary policy contractionary slide\",\"author\":\"S. 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