Learning Outcomes
- State binomial probabilities using mathematical notation
- Calculate the mean and standard deviation of a binomial random variable
- Calculate a binomial probability using technology
Notation for the Binomial: [latex]B=[/latex] Binomial Probability Distribution Function
[latex]X\sim{B}(n,p)[/latex]
Read this as “[latex]X[/latex] is a random variable with a binomial distribution.” The parameters are [latex]n[/latex] and [latex]p[/latex]; [latex]n=[/latex] number of trials, [latex]p=[/latex] probability of a success on each trial.
Example
It has been stated that about 41% of adult workers have a high school diploma but do not pursue any further education. If 20 adult workers are randomly selected, find the probability that at most 12 of them have a high school diploma but do not pursue any further education. How many adult workers do you expect to have a high school diploma but do not pursue any further education?
Let [latex]X=[/latex] the number of workers who have a high school diploma but do not pursue any further education.
[latex]X[/latex] takes on the values 0, 1, 2, …, 20 where [latex]n=20[/latex], [latex]p=0.41[/latex], and [latex]q=1–0.41=0.59[/latex]. [latex]X\sim{B}(20,0.41)[/latex]
Find [latex]P(x\leq12)[/latex]. [latex]P(x\leq12)=0.9738[/latex]. (calculator or computer)
Try It
About 32% of students participate in a community volunteer program outside of school. If 30 students are selected at random, find the probability that at most 14 of them participate in a community volunteer program outside of school. Use the TI-83+ or TI-84 calculator to find the answer.
Example
In the 2013 Jerry’s Artarama art supplies catalog, there are 560 pages. Eight of the pages feature signature artists. Suppose we randomly sample 100 pages. Let [latex]X=[/latex] the number of pages that feature signature artists.
- What values does [latex]x[/latex] take on?
- What is the probability distribution? Find the following probabilities:
- the probability that two pages feature signature artists
- the probability that at most six pages feature signature artists
- the probability that more than three pages feature signature artists.
- Using the formulas, calculate the (a) mean and (b) standard deviation.
Try It
According to a Gallup poll, 60% of American adults prefer saving over spending. Let [latex]X=[/latex] the number of American adults out of a random sample of 50 who prefer saving to spending.
- What is the probability distribution for [latex]X[/latex]?
- Use your calculator to find the following probabilities:
- the probability that 25 adults in the sample prefer saving over spending
- the probability that at most 20 adults prefer saving
- the probability that more than 30 adults prefer saving
- Using the formulas, calculate the (i) mean and (ii) standard deviation of [latex]X[/latex].
Example
The lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer is about one in 78 (1.28%). Suppose we randomly sample 200 people. Let [latex]X=[/latex] the number of people who will develop pancreatic cancer.
- What is the probability distribution for [latex]X[/latex]?
- Using the formulas, calculate the (i) mean and (ii) standard deviation of [latex]X[/latex].
- Use your calculator to find the probability that at most eight people develop pancreatic cancer.
- Is it more likely that five or six people will develop pancreatic cancer? Justify your answer numerically.
Try It
During the 2013 regular NBA season, DeAndre Jordan of the Los Angeles Clippers had the highest field goal completion rate in the league. DeAndre scored with 61.3% of his shots. Suppose you choose a random sample of 80 shots made by DeAndre during the 2013 season. Let [latex]X=[/latex] the number of shots that scored points.
- What is the probability distribution for [latex]X[/latex]?
- Using the formulas, calculate the (i) mean and (ii) standard deviation of [latex]X[/latex].
- Use your calculator to find the probability that DeAndre scored with 60 of these shots.
- Find the probability that DeAndre scored with more than 50 of these shots.
Example
The following example illustrates a problem that is not binomial. It violates the condition of independence. ABC College has a student advisory committee made up of ten staff members and six students. The committee wishes to choose a chairperson and a recorder. What is the probability that the chairperson and recorder are both students?
Try It
A lacrosse team is selecting a captain. The names of all the seniors are put into a hat, and the first three that are drawn will be the captains. The names are not replaced once they are drawn (one person cannot be two captains). You want to see if the captains all play the same position. State whether this is binomial or not and state why.