Preparing for the next class
In the next in-class activity, you will need to have a firm grasp of how to conduct a two sample test of proportions, including setting up null and alternative hypotheses, checking that necessary conditions have been met, performing the two-sample hypothesis test of proportions, and interpreting the conclusions of the test.
You will also need to be able to use the DCMP Compare Two Population Proportions tool at https://dcmathpathways.shinyapps.io/2sample_prop/ to find a confidence interval for the difference between two proportions.
In this preview assignment,[1] you’ll be reading a short article titled “People add by default even when subtraction makes more sense” from Science News magazine and analyzing one of the experiments mentioned in the article.
Go to the article: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/psychology-numbers-people-add default-subtract-better.
First, read the whole article in order to understand the context. Next, focus on the paragraph that describes the experiment involving the Lego structure. There is a picture in the article that illustrates the structure.
The following is the paragraph on the Lego structure experiment:
“In one experiment, the team offered 197 people wandering around a crowded university quad a dollar to solve a puzzle. Participants viewed a Lego structure in which a figurine was standing atop a platform with a large pillar behind her. Atop that pillar, a single block in one corner supported a flat roof. Researchers asked the participants to stabilize the roof to avoid squashing the figurine. About half the participants were told: ‘Each piece you add costs 10 cents.’ Even with that financial penalty, only 40 out of 98 participants thought to remove the destabilizing block and just rest the roof on top of the wide pillar. The researchers gave the remaining participants a more explicit message: ‘Each piece you add costs 10 cents but removing pieces is free.’ That cue prompted 60 out of 99 participants to remove the block.”
Question 1
Let Group 1 be the group who was told, “Each piece you add costs 10 cents.” Let Group 2 be the group who was told, “Each piece you add costs 10 cents but removing pieces is free.”
- Part A: Which of the following is a more appropriate description of the populations under investigation?
- a) Population 1 is composed of people who did not get reminded to remove pieces, and Population 2 is composed of people who did get reminded to remove pieces.
- b) Population 1 is composed of the experiment’s participants who did not get reminded to remove pieces, and Population 2 is composed of the experiment’s participants who did get reminded to remove pieces.
- Part B: Based on the numbers provided in the article (particularly in the paragraph copied at the beginning of the assignment), what do [latex]p_{1}[/latex] and [latex]p_{2}[/latex] represent?
- a) The proportion of people in Population 1 and Population 2, respectively, who thought to remove the destabilizing block.
- b) The proportion of people in Population 1 and Population 2, respectively, who didn’t think to remove the destabilizing block.
- Part C: Which of the following expresses the null hypothesis, [latex]H_{0}[/latex]?
- a) [latex]p_{1} - p_{2} > 0[/latex]
- b) [latex]p_{1} - p_{2} < 0[/latex]
- c) [latex]p_{1} - p_{2} = 0[/latex]
- d) [latex]p_{1} - p_{2} \neq 0[/latex]
- Part D: Suppose that the researchers wanted to test the claim that the proportion of people who remove a piece is different depending on whether people are reminded to remove a piece or not. Which of the following expresses the alternative hypothesis, [latex]H_{A}[/latex]?
- a) [latex]p_{1} - p_{2} > 0[/latex]
- b) [latex]p_{1} - p_{2} < 0[/latex]
- c) [latex]p_{1} - p_{2} = 0[/latex]
- d) [latex]p_{1} - p_{2} \neq 0[/latex]
Question 2
Now that we’ve established the null and alternative hypotheses, we need to check that the necessary conditions for conducting a two-sample test of proportions have been met.
- Part A: Fill in the following table based on the information in the article.
Symbol Meaning Value [latex]x_{1}[/latex] Number of people in Group 1 who thought to remove the destabilizing block
[latex]n_{1}[/latex] Size of Group 1 [latex]\hat{p_{1}}[/latex] Proportion of people in Group 1 who thought to
remove the
destabilizing block
[latex]x_{2}[/latex] Number of people in Group 2 who thought to remove the destabilizing block
[latex]n_{2}[/latex] Size of Group 2 [latex]\hat{p_{2}}[/latex] Proportion of people in Group 2 who thought to
remove the
destabilizing block
[latex]\hat{p_{c}}[/latex] Combined sample proportion from both groups
Recall the necessary conditions for a two-sample test of proportions.
Conditions for Two-Sample Z-Test of Proportions
- Large Counts: Check that *MISSING LATEX*
- Random Samples/Assignment: Check that the two samples
are independent and random samples or that they come from
randomly assigned groups in an experiment.
- 10%: Check that *MISSING LATEX*.
- Part B: Verify Condition 2. Which of the following statements best addresses whether or not this condition was satisfied?
- a) The article states that study participants were randomly assigned to either Group 1 or Group 2, so this condition was satisfied.
- b) The article does not explicitly state that participants were randomly assigned to either Group 1 or Group 2, but we know that the researchers conducted an experiment, so we can safely assume that this condition was satisfied.
- c) The article states that the first 98 people were assigned to Group 1 and the next 99 people were assigned to Group 2, so this condition was not satisfied.
Part C: Verify Condition 3. Which of the following best expresses what is true about this condition?
- a) We only need to check this condition if we are sampling from the population. Since this experiment was done with random assignment, we do not need to check this condition.
- b) This condition was met.
- Part D: Finally, we need to check that we have a large enough sample size to meet Condition 1. Using the table you filled in for Part A of this question, complete the following table.
[latex]n_{1}\hat{p_{c}}[/latex] [latex]n_{1}(1-\hat{p_{c}})[/latex] [latex]n_{2}\hat{p_{c}}[/latex] [latex]n_{2}(1-\hat{p_{c}})[/latex] Part E: Is the sample size large enough to meet the “large counts” condition?
- a) Yes, we found that all values are greater than or equal to 10.
- b) No, there are some values that are less than 10.
Question 3
Now, we are ready to perform the test. We will use significance level α = 0.05. Go to the DCMP Compare Two Population Proportions tool at
https://dcmathpathways.shinyapps.io/2sample_prop/.
Under “Enter Data,” select “Number of Successes.” For Group 1 and Group 2, enter the appropriate values and check “Provide Group Labels” to add descriptions for each group.
- Part A: Under “Type of Inference,” select “Significance Test.” Based on the alternative hypothesis, which option should you select?
- a) Two-sided
- b) Less
- c) Greater
- Part B: What is the observed difference of sample proportions?
- Part C: Select the alternative hypothesis option you chose in Part A. What is the value of the z-test statistic?
- Part D: What P-value do you obtain?
Question 4
In this question, you will interpret the results of the test using both the z-test statistic and the P-value.
- Part A: Which of the following is an appropriate interpretation of the z-test statistic?
- a) Our observed difference of sample proportions (−198) lies 2.78 standard errors below the null hypothesis value. Since this lies more than 2 standard errors away, we know this value is quite unlikely, so we have evidence to doubt the null hypothesis.
- b) Our observed difference of sample proportions (−198) lies 2.78 standard errors above the null hypothesis value. Since this lies more than 2 standard errors away, we know this value is very likely, so we don’t have evidence to doubt the null hypothesis.
- c) If we assume the null is true, there is a probability of 2.78 of seeing a sample difference of proportions of −198 or more by chance alone. This is very unlikely under the null, so we have reason to doubt the null hypothesis.
- d) There is a probability of 2.78 that the null hypothesis is true.
- Part B: Which of the following is an appropriate interpretation of the P-value?
- a) Our observed difference of sample proportions (–0.198) lies 0.0055 standard errors below the null hypothesis value. Since this lies less than 2 standard errors away, we know this value is quite unlikely, so we have evidence to doubt the null hypothesis.
- b) Our observed difference of sample proportions (−198) lies 0.0055 standard errors above the null hypothesis value. Since this lies less than 2 standard errors away, we know this value is very likely, so we don’t have evidence to doubt the null hypothesis.
- c) If we assume the null is true, there is a probability of 0.0055 of seeing a sample difference of proportions of −198 or more by chance alone. This is very unlikely under the null, so we have reason to doubt the null hypothesis.
- d) There is a probability of 0.0055 that the null hypothesis is true.
- Part C: Fill in the blank to express your conclusion.
Under my assumption that there is no difference in proportions of people who chose to remove Lego pieces, the observed data (a difference of −0.198 between the two groups among 197 participants) is highly unlikely.
Therefore, I _______ the assumption that there is no difference between the two groups. There is evidence that the proportion of people who remove a piece is different depending on whether people are reminded to remove a piece or not.- a) reject
- b) fail to reject
Looking Ahead
Question 5
In the next class, you will need to be able to use the data analysis tool to find a confidence interval for the difference between two proportions. To do this, under “Type of Inference,” select “Confidence Interval.” Construct a 95% confidence interval.
- Part A: What are the lower and upper bounds of the confidence interval you obtain for [latex]p_{1} - p_{2}[/latex]? Fill in the following table and round to 3 decimal places.
Lower bound Upper bound - Part B: Determine whether this statement is true or false: “There is a 95% chance that the true difference in population proportions lies between −0.335 and −0.061.”
- a) True
- b) False
- Assignment outline based on lessons from Skew The Script. ↵