{"id":100,"date":"2014-07-25T21:36:54","date_gmt":"2014-07-25T21:36:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/courses.candelalearning.com\/principlesmanagement1x1\/?post_type=chapter&p=100"},"modified":"2015-03-12T07:58:07","modified_gmt":"2015-03-12T07:58:07","slug":"11-5-developing-your-personal-decision-making-skills","status":"publish","type":"chapter","link":"https:\/\/courses.lumenlearning.com\/suny-fmcc-principlesmanagement\/chapter\/11-5-developing-your-personal-decision-making-skills\/","title":{"raw":"Developing Your Personal Decision-Making Skills","rendered":"Developing Your Personal Decision-Making Skills"},"content":{"raw":"
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Learning Objectives<\/h3>\r\n
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  1. Understand what you can do to avoid making poor decisions.<\/li>\r\n\t
  2. Learn what a project premortem is.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<\/div>\r\n
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    Perform a Project \u201cPremortem\u201d to Fix Problems Before They Happen<\/h2>\r\nDoctors routinely perform postmortems to understand what went wrong with a patient who has died. The idea is for everyone to learn from the unfortunate outcome so that future patients will not meet a similar fate. But, what if you could avoid a horrible outcome before it happened by identifying project risks proactively\u2014before your project derails? Research suggests that the simple exercise of imagining what could go wrong with a given decision can increase your ability to identify reasons for future successes or failures by 30%. A \u201cpremortem\u201d is a way to imagine and to avoid what might go wrong before spending a cent or having to change course along the way.<\/span>\r\n\r\nGary Klein, an expert on decision making in fast-paced, uncertain, complex, and critical environments, recommends that decision makers follow this six-step premortem process to increase their chances of success.\r\n
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    1. A planning team comes up with an outline of a plan, such as the launching of a new product.<\/li>\r\n\t
    2. Either the existing group or a unique group is then told to imagine looking into a crystal ball and seeing that the new product failed miserably. They then write down all the reasons they can imagine that might have led to this failure.<\/li>\r\n\t
    3. Each team member shares items from their list until all the potential problems have been identified.<\/li>\r\n\t
    4. The list is reviewed for additional ideas.<\/li>\r\n\t
    5. The issues are sorted into categories in the search for themes.<\/li>\r\n\t
    6. The plan should then be revised to correct the flaws and avoid these potential problems.<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\nThe premortem technique allows groups to truly delve into \u201cwhat if\u201d scenarios. For example, in a premortem session at a Fortune<\/em> 50 company, an executive imagined that a potential billion-dollar environmental sustainability project might fail because the CEO had retired.\r\n
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      Key Takeaway<\/h3>\r\nThere are a number of ways to learn about decision making that can help make you more effective. If the decision is important, conduct a premortem to anticipate what might go wrong. When a decision is going to involve others, be proactive in getting them to buy in before the decision is made. Individuals and groups can suffer from decision-making traps and process losses. Understanding that you can spot and avoid these traps is important in helping to make you a more effective manager.\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n
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      Exercises<\/h3>\r\n
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      1. How might you use the premortem technique to be more effective within groups at school or work?<\/li>\r\n\t
      2. Imagine that your good friend is starting a new job next week as a manager. What recommendations would you give your friend to be successful with decision making at work?<\/li>\r\n<\/ol>\r\n<\/div>\r\n ","rendered":"
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        \n

        Learning Objectives<\/h3>\n
          \n
        1. Understand what you can do to avoid making poor decisions.<\/li>\n
        2. Learn what a project premortem is.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n
          \n

          Perform a Project \u201cPremortem\u201d to Fix Problems Before They Happen<\/h2>\n

          Doctors routinely perform postmortems to understand what went wrong with a patient who has died. The idea is for everyone to learn from the unfortunate outcome so that future patients will not meet a similar fate. But, what if you could avoid a horrible outcome before it happened by identifying project risks proactively\u2014before your project derails? Research suggests that the simple exercise of imagining what could go wrong with a given decision can increase your ability to identify reasons for future successes or failures by 30%. A \u201cpremortem\u201d is a way to imagine and to avoid what might go wrong before spending a cent or having to change course along the way.<\/span><\/p>\n

          Gary Klein, an expert on decision making in fast-paced, uncertain, complex, and critical environments, recommends that decision makers follow this six-step premortem process to increase their chances of success.<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. A planning team comes up with an outline of a plan, such as the launching of a new product.<\/li>\n
          2. Either the existing group or a unique group is then told to imagine looking into a crystal ball and seeing that the new product failed miserably. They then write down all the reasons they can imagine that might have led to this failure.<\/li>\n
          3. Each team member shares items from their list until all the potential problems have been identified.<\/li>\n
          4. The list is reviewed for additional ideas.<\/li>\n
          5. The issues are sorted into categories in the search for themes.<\/li>\n
          6. The plan should then be revised to correct the flaws and avoid these potential problems.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            The premortem technique allows groups to truly delve into \u201cwhat if\u201d scenarios. For example, in a premortem session at a Fortune<\/em> 50 company, an executive imagined that a potential billion-dollar environmental sustainability project might fail because the CEO had retired.<\/p>\n

            \n

            Key Takeaway<\/h3>\n

            There are a number of ways to learn about decision making that can help make you more effective. If the decision is important, conduct a premortem to anticipate what might go wrong. When a decision is going to involve others, be proactive in getting them to buy in before the decision is made. Individuals and groups can suffer from decision-making traps and process losses. Understanding that you can spot and avoid these traps is important in helping to make you a more effective manager.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

            \n

            Exercises<\/h3>\n
              \n
            1. How might you use the premortem technique to be more effective within groups at school or work?<\/li>\n
            2. Imagine that your good friend is starting a new job next week as a manager. What recommendations would you give your friend to be successful with decision making at work?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n

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