{"id":918,"date":"2016-12-21T20:03:19","date_gmt":"2016-12-21T20:03:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/courses.lumenlearning.com\/waymakermath4libarts\/?post_type=chapter&p=918"},"modified":"2019-05-30T16:41:31","modified_gmt":"2019-05-30T16:41:31","slug":"why-it-matters-growth-models","status":"publish","type":"chapter","link":"https:\/\/courses.lumenlearning.com\/waymakermath4libarts\/chapter\/why-it-matters-growth-models\/","title":{"raw":"Why It Matters: Growth Models","rendered":"Why It Matters: Growth Models"},"content":{"raw":"

Why learn about growth models?<\/h2>\r\n
\r\n\r\nThe following essay is adapted from blog posts on emergent math<\/a> by Geoff Krall.\r\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n

Can You Predict How Many Followers @charliesheen Has Right Now?<\/h3>\r\nSometime on March 1, 2011, Charlie Sheen joined twitter at the suggestion<\/a> of Piers Morgan, who is\u00a0apparently\u00a0some type of person. By the time I was alerted of the existence of a @charliesheen twitter feed<\/a>, it was 4:04 PM Mountain Standard Time. Sheen had yet to tweet, but already had somehow amassed over 100,000 followers<\/strong>. He hadn\u2019t even put up an avatar of himself yet (and somehow the account was \u201cverified\u201d).\"Screen<\/a>\r\n\r\nWhat happened over the next several hours was nothing short of amazing. All you had to do was wait a few seconds or minutes and hit \"refresh,\" and just watch the number of followers climb.\r\n\r\nI did this for about 50 minutes and collected data\u00a0along the way.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Time on March 1, 2011<\/th>\r\n# of Followers<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:04 PM<\/td>\r\n109,099<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:07 PM<\/td>\r\n112,497<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:09 PM<\/td>\r\n116,143<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:12 PM<\/td>\r\n120,195<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:14 PM<\/td>\r\n122,901<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:18 PM<\/td>\r\n127,643<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:21 PM<\/td>\r\n129,793<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:24 PM<\/td>\r\n133,357<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:29 PM<\/td>\r\n140,215<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:32 PM<\/td>\r\n144,103<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:38\u00a0PM<\/td>\r\n149,528<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
4:44 PM<\/td>\r\n153,848<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\nLater that night, I refreshed every half-hour or so and watched the number climbing steadily. At this point, he had made his first tweet.\r\n\r\n\"Screen<\/a>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Time on March 1, 2011<\/th>\r\n# of Followers<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
6:21\u00a0PM<\/td>\r\n261,894<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
6:24 PM<\/td>\r\n275,638<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
6:49 PM<\/td>\r\n302,077<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
7:13 PM<\/td>\r\n324,595<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
7:38 PM<\/td>\r\n348,955<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
8:45 PM<\/td>\r\n429,904<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\nEventually I had to go to bed. So I did. And as soon as I woke up the next morning I went back to check Charlie Sheen\u2019s number of twitter followers.\r\n\r\nNow I\u2019d be checking every hour or so. Recorded here.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Time on March 2, 2011<\/th>\r\n# of Followers<\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
6:45\u00a0AM<\/td>\r\n729,703<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
8:51 AM<\/td>\r\n799,008<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
9:36 AM<\/td>\r\n820,538<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
10:23\u00a0AM<\/td>\r\n841,940<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
11:16\u00a0AM<\/td>\r\n865,972<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
12:43\u00a0PM<\/td>\r\n902,291<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
1:47 PM<\/td>\r\n926,557<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n
3:09\u00a0PM<\/td>\r\n957,259<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\nThe last datum I recorded was at 3:09 MST, at which point @charliesheen had 957,259 followers<\/strong>. So in less than 24 hours, Charlie Sheen had gained 800,000<\/strong> followers on twitter.\r\n\r\nI have two questions for you:\r\n