Trends from the nineteenth century culminated in the outbreak of World War One. Industrialization, democratization, and nationalism worked together to make the outbreak of a large war almost inevitable.
First, the rise of Germany destabilized the traditional balance of power that had existed since the end of the Napoleonic Wars and ensure that it was impossible for one country to dominate the others. Germany industrialized quite rapidly over the second half of the nineteenth century. For example, German coal and steel production increased 4 times between 1871 and 1898 and the national income doubled; although it still was behind that of the United Kingdom. The German chemical industry was now the most advanced in Europe. German universities became the most admired centers for higher learning in the world.Research in these institutions contributed to a better understanding of the world, especially with regard to chemical reactions and physics. Germany now possessed a strong railroad and road network; this infrastructure would later facilitate the movement of troops.
Secondly, the population increase, especially in cities, allowed for the rise of larger armies. The population of Europe increased by almost 100 million between 1750 and 1850. The German population grew by 50% over the course of the century. In contrast, the population of France grew insignificantly, making the French eager for conflict before they were hopelessly outnumbered by the Germans.
Third, a rising sense of militarism emerged and changed the moods of Western European countries. For German Kaiser Wilhelm II, the military function was the primary function of the state and the primary function of the state was the military. No countries wanted to limit the size of their armies lest they fall behind their neighbors. Both naval and military arms races emerged, especially between the United Kingdom and Germany. Spending on arms by the six largest countries of Europe rose by 50% in the five years leading up to the war with almost all of the great powers-Germany, the United Kingdom, and France-spending between 5 percent and 6 percent of their national incomes on armed forces.
Fourth, new technologies and industrialization allowed for a dramatic rise in the size of European armies. Countries could now supply arms and feed millions of men at the same time; thus, the size of the armies increased to a combined three million men. At the same time, new technological developments made killing easier and more efficient. For example, dynamite created larger explosions. Other products allowed for an increase in the rate of fire and the overall accuracy of such fires. Soldiers who could fire 3 shots per minute at Waterloo in 1815 now could fire 16 shots per minute. Artillery could be fired five to six thousand years. By the end of the war, German artillery was so advanced that it calculated the curvature of the earth before firing.
Fifth, a rising sense of patriotism made war a more likely outcome. In an era of mechanization and its dehumanizing effects, people wanted to make the ultimate romantic sacrifice to their nation and its course. Fighting was part of the nationalism and added to its greatness. The citizens felt a sense of pride in conquering other nations; along was the stronger race to survive an advanced civilization. The preceding small wars reinforce these notions of national glory. These wars–the bloody Russo-Japanese War, the Sino-Japanese War of 1895, and Spanish-American War–were short but they enabled these nations to obtain glory and a sense of pride. Simply, war was part of nature and was inherently good. The experience of Western Europeans in colonial wars only made notions of war seem more glamorous and exciting. In the Sudan conflict, the British killed over ten thousand natives while it only lost less than fifty men. It also influenced the military thinking of that era. British General Haig stated: “I am thoroughly satisfied from what I have seen in South Africa that the necessity of training cavalry to charge is as great it was in the days of Napoleon.”
Finally, patriotism was reflected in a hardening alliance system. The alliances of Russia, France and Britain against Germany, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire created a relatively quickly fight. As France and Russia were connected so were the Germans and the Austro-Hungarians.The rising democratization of politics also made switching allies quite difficult. Politicians would spend a great deal of time convincing their electorate that the new alliance system made sense. Countries could no longer change partners as quickly as they had done in the past.
Figure 2: The Alliances of Europe
Popular literature also glorified war. The British witnessed a surge in cheap novels that fantasized various wars with Germany. For example, a novel called the Invasion of 1910 was about the German invasion of Britain while another novel depicted a German victory.
Plans for war depended on quick call up and response. The German plan of action was developed so as to avoid the dreaded two-front war. The Schlieffen Plan called for the quick invasion of France, the country to the west. A quick defeat of France would give the troops ample time to race back across Germany to deal with Russia, whom the Germans knew would take time to mobilize.
The countries possessed different strengths that would increase the length of a potential war. The British possessed the strongest navy, the greatest industrial capacity, and a large powerful empire that they could rely on for assistance. However, they lacked an army that could rival Germany and a strong will to fight; hence, the government needed a great deal of political propaganda regarding German atrocities to serve as the motivating factor for the British citizens to join the army. Germany possessed a strong army and industrial capacity but lacked strong allies. It was also geographically vulnerable; it was encircled by France and Russia. France possessed a strong army and population, although its growth was slowing especially compared to that of Germany. Its overall strategic plan was simply to invade, though the force of nationalism, Germany and avenge the defeats of the past. The Austro-Hungarians possessed a large population but lacked a sense of unity, it was made up of multiple nationalities, and industrial capacity. In contrast, the Ottomans were more united but lacked the industrial capacity of the other powers. Finally, Russia possessed an incredible size and population but lacked the industry and trained soldiers. Its leaders were unpopular and distant and the military was beset by corruption.
